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The probability of XRP ETF skyrocketing on Polymarket after a surprising move from the SEC
Although the SEC in America continues to delay the approval of applications to open the XRP ETF, the probability of approval on the Polymarket platform unexpectedly surged in early June. Specifically, according to long-time XRP investor John Squire, the chance of the Ripple ETF being approved before the end of the year has reached 98%, compared to below 70% a few weeks ago.
Currently, the adjusted probability is at 88%, but it is still significantly higher than the annual average. However, with the closest deadline being July 31, the likelihood of approval is only at 17% and continues to decline as the SEC has not yet made a clear move.
The main driving force behind this upward trend comes from the SEC recently approving the Nasdaq crypto payment index, which includes XRP, ADA, SOL, and XLM. Analysts believe this is a significant step, demonstrating that these assets have high liquidity and stable prices — important conditions for moving towards a spot ETF.
However, the ETFs of other coins like ADA and SOL have not recorded a similar probability increase. The chance for ADA decreased from 70% to 42%, while Solana is currently at 79%, lower than last week.