Breaking! The US-China trade giants are secretly clashing in London, and the global market holds its breath! This negotiation, which affects the nerves of the world economy, has already released subtle signals on its first day — Trump rarely stated that "things are going well," but the hardline stance of the Chinese representatives has left the market filled with suspense regarding the final outcome. From the perspective of the game pattern, the most likely scenario is a "limited breakthrough": the US side may ease export restrictions on NVIDIA's mid-range chips in exchange for the Chinese side resuming temporary rare earth supply to the three major US automakers and extending the tariff truce period by 90 days. However, if the EDA software regulations led by US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and the ban on Huawei's Ascend chips do not loosen, negotiations in the technology field are likely to become stalled.

The butterfly effect in the cryptocurrency world has already manifested:
• If a phased agreement is reached, the global risk appetite may rebound, leading to a short-term capital flow from cryptocurrencies back to traditional markets. Historical data shows that during the January 2024 US-China negotiation window, Bitcoin rose 22% in a single month, but capital briefly withdrew after the agreement was reached. However, institutions like BlackRock have been continuously increasing their BTC positions recently, and New Hampshire has just passed the first cryptocurrency strategic reserve bill in the U.S., which could potentially bring in hundreds of millions of dollars and offset some selling pressure.
• If the negotiations break down, Bitcoin's property as a "digital neutral asset" will be strengthened. After Trump announced tariff increases in April 2025, Bitcoin plummeted 8% in the short term, but rebounded quickly by 12% within two weeks, demonstrating its "desensitization" to geopolitical risks. Analysts at Standard Chartered have further hinted that if the deadlock continues, Bitcoin's target price by the end of the year could be raised to $200,000.
It is worth noting that the cryptocurrency market has recently preemptively digested some risks: before the news of negotiations in May landed, Bitcoin only fell by 0.3% during the sharp decline in the US stock market, while BlackRock's ETF saw a net inflow of over $500 million in a single day, injecting long-term confidence into the market. If the bill in New Hampshire is fully implemented, it could become a "variable" outside of the negotiations - based on the state's budget of $15.4 billion, up to $770 million in funding entering the market could directly boost market liquidity.
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