Bitcoin price edged up as CPI America increased for the first time since February

The CPI data of the United States has just been released, showing that inflation has risen again in May, marking the first increase since February. This has had a strong impact on the market, pushing the price of Bitcoin closer to the 110,000 USD mark.

! BTC Price Chart 1 Hour | Source: TradingViewBesides the CPI, traders and investors are also watching other important US data, including employment data and PPI (Chỉ xuất) prices, which are expected to be released next Thursday.

Inflation increased to 2.4% in May

According to CPI data, inflation in the United States in May increased by 2.4%, compared to an increase of 2.3% in April. This is the first time since January 2025 that inflation based on the CPI index has risen again.

The increase in inflation in May is the first signal in the past 3-4 months. Immediately, Bitcoin recorded a slight increase, reaching nearly 110,000 USD at the time of writing.

Before the release of CPI data, it is predicted that the CPI index in May will increase by 0.2% compared to the previous month (MoM) and reach 2.5% over the same period last year (YoY). It is the expectation of an increase in inflation that has helped the Bitcoin price have a slight breakout, reflecting market expectations.

CPI for May of the US | Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsAnalyst Cas Abbé predicted:

"If the CPI > 2.5%, there is a high probability of a sell-off because the interest rate cut from the Fed may be eliminated. If CPI = 2.5%, the market will have a slight decline but will also be an opportunity to buy. If the CPI < 2.5%, we could see a strong price pump, although there may be a discharge later, but the market will end in the green. Unless the first scenario occurs, the market will maintain a bullish trend."

Notably, many banks have forecasted that inflation in May will be mild and monthly core inflation will be nearly at the average of the past 12 months.

Several factors may explain the increase in CPI inflation in May, including the impacts of President Trump's tariff policy, particularly on consumer goods and commodity prices. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades suggests that one possible reason could be the rise in oil prices and the tax levels imposed on consumers.

With the CPI data now released, attention will shift to other important indicators from the United States this week, including the initial jobless claims and PPI, which will be released on June 12. Also, note the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (Fed) next week.

Next Wednesday, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision from the meeting on June 17-18, along with a speech by Chairman Jerome Powell.

CPI is a "lagging" inflation indicator and plays a crucial role in the Fed's policy decisions, especially with the 2% inflation target that the agency is aiming for. Today's CPI data will significantly influence the FOMC's interest rate decisions in the upcoming meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 99.9% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25-4.50% in the next meeting.

Source: CME FedWatchThe Kobeissi Letter account commented:

"The likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates next week has dropped to 0%."

However, although Trump's tariff policies have an impact on inflation in the United States, Powell has asserted that political pressure will not affect the Fed's policy decisions. With inflation still above the 2% target, policymakers may continue to maintain a cautious strategy.

"In general, the market expects that the Fed will continue to maintain a wait-and-see approach... Both the market developments and the subsequent decisions will depend on key event factors, especially expectations for interest rate cuts after the Fed's meeting and statements from officials," analysts at Bitunix shared.

Besides inflation, the labor market in the US is also becoming an important macroeconomic factor for Bitcoin. If the labor market continues to maintain stability and the economy does not face shocks, the Fed may implement interest rate cut policies in the future.

Annie