Alt season may arrive late as BTC.D rises amid political tensions.

The current conflict between Israel and Iran has had a strong impact on both the stock market and cryptocurrency; however, it has not changed the dominance of Bitcoin (BTC.D). In the past 24 hours, the total market capitalization of crypto has fallen by about 6%.

Although the value of Bitcoin and altcoins plummeted, BTC. D had an unexpected growth of 1.4%, going against the general trend. This has significantly reduced expectations for a promising altcoin season, while also making the timing of altcoin bulls more unpredictable and unstable than ever

BTC.D rises amidst political tension

Bitcoin Magazine reported today that Israel's attacks on Iran have caused a severe downturn in the market, with total liquidations surpassing 1 billion dollars. The cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen from 3.4 trillion dollars to 3.2 trillion dollars.

The sell-off in the market caused the price of Bitcoin to fall by about 3.1%. However, altcoins suffered greater losses, boosting the BTC.D. At the time of writing, BTC. D has risen from 63.8% to 64.7%, indicating that Bitcoin is consolidating its dominance amid the market facing uncertainty.

The BTC.D index measures the percentage of Bitcoin's market capitalization compared to the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market. An increase in this index indicates that investors are exiting altcoins faster than Bitcoin, thereby strengthening BTC's position in the current volatile market phase.

Market capitalization of crypto and BTC.D | Source: TradingView## Forecast for the altcoin season may be delayed

The increase of BTC.D may be a clear sign that the altcoin season many investors are waiting for may be delayed. Contrary to previous analyses, when BTC.D falling usually signals the explosion of altcoins, the current situation paints a different scenario. With the increasing dominance of Bitcoin, altcoins not only face downward pressure but also have to wait for a longer period before they can begin their growth journey.

An analyst on X pointed out that BTC.D has changed its trend and is showing signs of growth. He stated that "the main resistance level is between 64.31% and 64.63%. A sustainable breakout in this area will indicate that the wave-(2) is still expanding in an upward direction."

If this happens, the altcoin season may be delayed, while indicating that Bitcoin will continue to hold its dominant position. In addition, Benjamin Cowen, CEO and Founder of Into The Cryptoverse, emphasized that the ALT/BTC ratio has fallen from 0.34 in early May to 0.32, and predicts that altcoins will continue to lose value in the long term as this ratio decreases to 0.25.

Cowen also expressed optimism about BTC.D, while reiterating the view that Bitcoin remains a highly resilient asset, whereas many altcoins only have short-term success periods.

"In the past, I was always very optimistic about the dominance of Bitcoin. I still maintain that view, but perhaps I was much more confident back then," Cowen shared.

In an exclusive interview with Binance, Cowen particularly emphasized Bitcoin's outstanding resilience compared to other digital assets. He referred to Bitcoin as a "safe haven," especially in the context of macroeconomic uncertainties such as rising inflation and unemployment rates.

"Bitcoin will exist, no matter what happens, no matter what challenges lie ahead. Bitcoin has strong resilience and, as we have seen, will ultimately continue to grow. However, the same cannot be said for all altcoins."

He also pointed out that most altcoins only have a brief period of success, and only a few coins can maintain their position in the top 5 or top 10 over multiple cycles.

At the same time, Cowen also warned that investors applying the dollar-cost averaging strategy (DCA) to altcoins may face significant risks, as the value of these assets often falls sharply compared to Bitcoin.

For this reason, the altcoin season may become the only opportunity for investors to break even. However, Cowen also cautiously emphasized that even when the altcoin season appears, it may not start until November 2025.

Lilly