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Altcoin Season 2025: Has the Capital Rotation Process Occurred Yet?
The current downturn has left cryptocurrency marketers wondering about the near future of the industry and the possibility of an altcoin season. Amid all the hustle and bustle, Cryptex Guy, an analyst, discussed in a post on X whether we will see an altcoin season again. In this article, we will take you through the proponent's arguments regarding altcoin season, BTC dominance, stablecoins, Ethereum's position, and more. The Dominance of BTC + The Combination of Stablecoin The combined chart of BTC.D + USDT.D + USDC.D shared by the analyst highlights the money outside of the altcoins. Historically, this index approaching the red zone of 74–75% is a trigger point for strong price increases of altcoins due to rejection from that upper resistance level.
Currently at 70.87%, a final push into that area, followed by a rejection, as seen in the past, could mean a rotation of capital into altcoins. Notably, a break below the ascending teal trendline will confirm the end of Bitcoin's capital dominance, paving the way for a complete Altseason, similar to the small alt-run we saw in Q4 2024. The Dominance of BTC on Lower Time Frames On the 4H chart, BTC Dominance has broken out of the ascending wedge pattern, a typical bearish pattern for BTC.D. Since altcoins have an inverse correlation with BTC.D, this breakout could lead to a short-term recovery for altcoins.
Right now, BTC.D seems to be testing the upper boundary of the wedge. If this retest is rejected, we can expect a rapid bullish candle of 5–10% on strong altcoins. This aligns with the recent surge of Ethereum above 1000 dollars, which has pumped 138 billion dollars into the altcoin ecosystem. The Re-Examination of Ethereum and the Bigger Altseason Picture On higher time frames, Ethereum has reclaimed a significant multi-year trend line, known as the Bull-Bear boundary. A successful reclaim will boost investor confidence and may drive continuous capital flow into altcoins.
The altcoin market is also forming a bullish structure. If this pattern holds, it will lay the groundwork for Altseason 2025, with many altcoins likely to increase 2–3 times from current levels. This scenario reflects the patterns from 2023 and 2024, when capital rotation into altcoins brought about a general price increase for the market.