Can XRP Handle 14% of SWIFT Volume? Experts Analyze the Math

At the APEX 2025 developer summit, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that XRP could support up to 14% of SWIFT's total volume within five years. With the global interbank messaging network processing over $30 trillion in cross-border transactions annually, such a goal implies a significant expansion in the utility of XRP. While some dismiss this claim as mere ambition, the post-event analysis has provided robust data models indicating that XRP could fulfill that role under the right conditions. Calculate conservative liquidity Crypto expert and commentator Eri (@sentosumosaba) has provided a realistic perspective on the amount of XRP needed to handle an annual transaction volume of $4.2 trillion, which represents only a small fraction of the total of SWIFT, according to cautious assumptions. Based on the token price of $2.15 and an average trading cycle of three minutes to manage liquidity, the calculation estimates that 11.15 million XRP could facilitate that volume, accounting for just 0.0190% of the total 58.82 billion XRP in circulation. The main factor supporting this conclusion is the high token speed. If each XRP is reused every three minutes, it allows for up to 480 bridge transactions per day for each token.

The important role of Velocity in the pricing of XRP However, this high-frequency assumption is merely theoretical and is rarely reflected in actual market conditions. Another contributor, responding to Eri's model, elaborated on the practical use of XRP as a bridge asset. If the circulating liquidity is slower, for example, at 100 or even 50 transactions per day, the asset's price must increase significantly to maintain the same trading capacity. The example given shows that with only 50 transactions per day, XRP would need to be priced at around $20.64 to handle the same throughput of $4.2 trillion. With 10 transactions per day, the price would have to reach $103.20. This change indicates that the decreasing rate increases the demand for each token, putting upward pressure on the price. Some experts believe that the pressure from this volume could push asset prices even higher, as one expert recently suggested that a potential increase of 16,400% to $357 is a cautious level. Can XRP handle this volume? XRP stabilizes within 3 to 5 seconds, but real-world issues such as uneven transaction flow, regulatory delays, and the state of fiat currency conversion limit effective reuse, forcing liquidity providers to hold more XRP and reducing actual revenue despite automation. However, XRP is still significantly faster than SWIFT and similar legacy systems, leading to greater calls for the adoption of this digital asset as an alternative to SWIFT. If XRP supports a significant portion of global payment volume, then the necessary price is less dependent on the speed and efficiency with which each token can be transferred through the system. #TrumpBTCTreasury