2025 crypto market intertwines visible and hidden lines: certain opportunities under interest rate reduction games and system reconstruction.

In 2025, the crypto market is deeply caught in the interest rate cut game between Trump and Powell, while also becoming a pawn in the reshaping of the dollar system. How can retail investors anchor certain opportunities for 2026 amidst the turmoil?

Written by: NingNing

As we enter late June, the situation in the crypto market for 25 years has become very clear!

The main trading logic lines throughout this year's crypto market are two:

1, A clear line is the year-long debate between U.S. President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on whether to cut interest rates.

Although most macro analysts refuse to introduce a political dimension to analyze the dispute over whether Trump and Powell will lower interest rates, those who understand know. Whether or not to lower interest rates has no direct relation to U.S. inflation data and non-farm employment; it is actually a major tool in the political games between the Democratic and Republican parties in the U.S.

Observing the current FedWatch rate cut expectations, Polymarket prediction markets, and Twitter sentiment, it can be seen that Powell is firmly in control of the financial market discourse, while Trump can only rely on various tariff battles to exert extreme pressure and lash out on social media to try to pull some influence in the financial markets.

So in the future, at the two major equilibrium points - Powell's departure in May 2026 and before the U.S. midterm elections, the entire market is in a state of uncertainty brought about by the adversarial game between Powell tightening the market liquidity faucet and Trump stirring up trouble everywhere.

2, A hidden line is the integration of cryptocurrency into the traditional financial system, participating in the reshaping of the dollar financial system.

Whether it is under the principle of maintaining fiscal neutrality to increase the United States' strategic reserves of Bitcoin, or the U.S. version of the bond conversion plan which aims to scale stablecoins to over $2 trillion within a few years, including the upcoming market structure bill that clarifies whether the regulatory authority for the crypto market is the SEC or the CFTC, as well as whether PerpDEX represented by Hyperliquid can operate in the U.S., Trump's regulatory moves and Vance's public speeches are all indicating that the Trump administration regards cryptocurrency as an organic part of reshaping the 21st-century U.S. dollar financial system.

Therefore, 2025 is destined to be a year of uncertainty. We retail investors navigating our investments and trades this year are like a small boat sailing into turbulent waves accompanied by raging storms. Making a profit from investments and trades this year is simply of epic difficulty.

But the year 25 is not a year to lie flat; finding certainty amidst uncertainty is the way of the wise.

I see two promising certainty layout opportunities for 2026:

1. US version of debt - stablecoin - PayFi-RWA
2. CFTC regulates the crypto market - PerpDEX - Hyperliquid / Consumer Chain - Abstract

Anyway, our mission for 25 years is to stay at the table while secretly preparing the bottom card for 26 years.