Is there a Bear Market for Bitcoin?

Recently, when I was browsing Twitter, the automatic pop-ups were mostly about various news regarding Virtual, as well as the famous quote by Michael Saylor that has been widely hyped by various media:

"The Bear Market Is Not Coming Back And Bitcoin Is Going To $1 Million" (熊市不再有，比特币将到100万美元).

This is his statement during an interview with Bloomberg.

Seeing such a statement, my first feeling is that, as a form of expression for the public, it is probably difficult for the public to understand such a statement.

The difficult point to understand is:

What is the definition of a bear market?

What time frame is used to measure when a bear market is no longer present?

What time frame is used to measure Bitcoin reaching 1 million dollars?

So, I read the article quoted by Bitcoin Magazine. However, in this article, I did not see his statement regarding the two time periods mentioned above.

Michael Saylor can be considered a steadfast veteran in the crypto ecosystem, and I have no doubt about his faith in Bitcoin. I believe that with his belief in Bitcoin, his subconscious notion that there will no longer be bear markets for Bitcoin and that Bitcoin will reach one million dollars should be measured in terms of ten years or even decades.

If measured over a period of ten years or several decades, I completely agree with his view, especially his statement that Bitcoin will reach 1 million dollars, and I believe that in our lifetime, we will witness this miracle happening.

But this process will definitely not be smooth sailing. For example, if we measure it over a four-year period, I still believe that Bitcoin will experience several rounds of bear markets. ----------- The price of Bitcoin will rise in a wave-like manner, alternating between bull and bear markets over the next ten years and decades.

But for 90% of the general public, it is almost impossible to consistently view the upcoming trends of Bitcoin over the next decade or several decades using such standards while ignoring the fluctuations.

I believe that in the next bear market, when the price of Bitcoin plummets from its peak, the vast majority of ordinary participants will still be pessimistic, desperate, and even question their lives.

In fact, some of the things happening now are sowing the seeds of pessimism and despair for the future public. The most typical example is that more and more listed companies are now starting to buy Bitcoin, with the more cautious ones using their own cash, while the more aggressive ones are raising funds or even borrowing.

These companies were originally American companies, which later spread to Japanese companies, and recently this phenomenon has begun to spread among listed companies in Hong Kong.

I have observed certain companies listed in Hong Kong that have either bought or are about to buy Bitcoin. From their background, their business is completely unrelated to the cryptocurrency ecosystem, and even to the internet.

I find it hard to believe that such a company can have a strong faith in Bitcoin, can still believe in its hope even when Bitcoin's future plummets, and can withstand the pressure from shareholders and the board of directors who may blame the management for the company's stock price being affected by the drop in Bitcoin's price.

For companies like this, not to mention buying Bitcoin, even buying gold, which is already a widely recognized risk-hedging asset, would find it very difficult to withstand pressure in the event of a decline in gold prices.

In summary, for the vast majority of people and companies that are actively buying Bitcoin now, their purchases are merely a herd mentality, a kind of "everyone else is doing it, so I will too" effect. On the day Bitcoin reaches one million dollars, the vast majority of those currently buying will not be able to make money from it.