Geopolitical conflicts resurface: How traders navigate chaos in 2025

1. The Crypto Market Under Geopolitical Fire: A Fragile Illusion or Resilient Pressure Resistance?

What is the essential difference in the driving effect of political black swans on the crypto market compared to past cycles?

Long-term trader Mr. Bai was the first to analyze the psychological warfare of the market. He posed a soul-searching question: "What stage do you think the bull market is in right now? The definition of the starting point determines the expectation of the endpoint." In his view, the core of market divergence lies in the cognitive differences regarding the starting point of the bull market.

"If it is marked by the breakout of the 200-day moving average (about November 2023), the bull market has been running for nearly 18 months; If the previous high is broken as a signal (November 2024), it will only open for about 7 months. Mr. Bai calculated, "The former means that the market has entered the middle and late stages, and the latter implies that there is at least 5-6 months of space." It was based on the judgment at the end of the cycle that he chose to liquidate Bitcoin and move to Ethereum, which has not yet broken through the previous high ($4,100).

Behind the technical charts, Mr. Bai has further insight into a silent battle of chip transfer. "On-chain data reveals the truth: the number of small addresses holding 0-1 BTC continues to decrease, while the number of addresses holding 10-100 BTC steadily increases." He accurately summarizes, "Retail investors are selling in fear, while institutions are accumulating silently—this is a typical characteristic of the mid-stage of a bull market."

However, the entry of institutions is by no means a universal signal. Mr. Bai warns using the 2021 bull market as an example: "Institutions were still buying at high positions of 30,000 and even 60,000, but the bear market still fell to 15,000. The actions of institutions are a footnote to market activity, not a bottom-fishing directive."

The trader master then approached from the evolution of market structure, pointing out the genetic mutation of this bull market. "In the past, bull markets were driven by the native power of blockchain, but now they are reshaped by the wave of compliance." He listed three major turning points: the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, Trump's inclusion of crypto assets in the national strategic reserve, and the accelerated formation of a global regulatory framework.

"Regulation is a double-edged sword. It brings in a channel for traditional capital to enter, but also makes the crypto market more susceptible to international political influences." Teacher Dashouzi analyzed the recent Middle East conflict, saying, "However, localized wars only cause short-term disturbances to BTC/ETH, similar to the impact of the European conflict on the market — after a sharp drop, there will be a rapid recovery." He asserts that the current adjustment is indeed a good opportunity for investment: "The Ethereum/Bitcoin exchange rate is only 0.073, which leaves a huge gap from the historical average of 0.6."

2. Ethereum vs Bitcoin: Strategic Shift Under Value Fragmentation

Mr. Bai presented relevant data: Ethereum has dropped 66% from its peak of $4800, but historical experience shows that the maximum decline in a bear market is about 80%. "If it drops to $1000, my cost of $1800 is still safe. When the media collectively sings the blues and retail investors panic sell, it is precisely the golden window for long-term positioning."

He also revealed the secret activities of whales: "Addresses with over 10,000 ETH continue to grow, with the total staked amount surpassing 45 million (accounting for 35% of the circulating supply)." The movements of Sun Yuchen, the Trump family fund, and ARK Invest heavily investing in the Ethereum ecosystem.

The teacher, Dazhongzi, reinforced this judgment with market psychology: "Bitcoin has risen by 80-90%, while Ethereum has only recovered halfway. When Bitcoin reaches a peak, smart money is turning to Ethereum in search of new opportunities." He specifically pointed out the doubling trend of Ethereum from $1300 to $2700 in March: "This is by no means a coincidence; behind it is the imminent effect of favorable policies."

In terms of strategy selection, the two exhibit a striking contrast:

Mr. Bai's "Time for Space": adopting a divided warehouse investment strategy, adding positions every time it falls to key points (such as $2000), while retaining 50% cash to deal with black swans.

The "Trend Enhancement Technique" by Master Dazhou: Lower leverage + set strict stop-loss, use options to build a safety cushion, and capture the Ethereum rebound market amidst volatility.

III. The Era of Stablecoin 3.0: Compliance Breakthrough Under Political Endorsement

The expert believes that "stablecoins are the bridge connecting fiat currency and the crypto world, but the trust crisis has never been resolved." He reviewed the multiple de-pegging events of USDT: "The transparency of reserves is like a black box, which is a sword hanging over our heads." The core breakthrough of USD1 lies in the threefold firewall: "Trump family's political endorsement + underlying custody of US debt assets + on-chain transparency mechanism — this marks the entry of stablecoins into the 3.0 era."

Mr. Bai deconstructs the trend from a macro perspective: "The current stablecoin market is undergoing a threefold evolution: from the ambiguous reserve phase of USDT, to the audit and compliance phase of USDC, and finally reaching the political-financial complex phase of USD1." He particularly points out the unique profile of USD1 holders: "31% of users also hold Trump-themed Meme coins, indicating that ideology has become a new moat for stablecoins."

4. Trader's Survival Guide: 2025 Battle Track Revealed

In the face of a capricious market in the second half of the year, two traders revealed their ultimate battle plans.

The master teacher has locked in four major innovation tracks:

AI×Blockchain: "Blockchain excels in storage, while AI surpasses in computation. For example, the decentralized machine learning network created by Fetch.ai is allowing AI agents to truly have on-chain identities."

RWA (Real World Assets): Ondo Finance tokenizes US Treasury bonds, with a seven-day trading volume exceeding 300 million.

DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure): Helium phones enable a distributed telecommunications network, allowing users to share the network and earn tokens.

Payment Revolution: Stripe Restarts Cryptocurrency Payments, Targeting the Trillion Dollar Cross-Border Payment Market

"The common characteristic of these tracks is: superficial narratives give way to real utility." He emphasized, "When the meme coin bubble bursts, practical value will become the engine of the new bull market."

Mr. Bai introduced the "cycle clock strategy": "It is a rule that Bitcoin peaks 12-18 months after halving. The halving in April 2024 means that August 2025 is a critical window." He combined on-chain data with macro analysis: "Although Federal Reserve policies cause short-term fluctuations, as proven by the pandemic in 2020, macroeconomic shocks do not change the long-term trend."

His strategy sharing:

50% of the funds are used for extreme situation backup, using the "pyramid increasing position method": increase the position size for every 10% drop.

Key time node: December is the confirmation line for the continuation of the bull market.

5. Web3 Entertainment Revolution: When Finance Meets New Variety Species

The topic shifts to the Web3 light variety show "On-Chain Big Players" co-created by Twinkle and Golden Finance.

twinkle Market Manager kiki unveils the creative veil: "Traditional variety shows showcase celebrity personas, but we aim to present the soul of Web3." The program design holds hidden mysteries:

Mr. Bai praised this kind of "immersive education": "When traditional Internet people pour into Web3 with mature experience, we need a cross-border translator like Golden Finance. He envisions the new scenarios that the show might create: "The audience understands the LP liquidity pool in the process of knocking CP, which is ten times more efficient than reading a white paper." ”

The expert suggested from the perspective of communication studies: "We need to design natural conflict points, such as having value investors and quantitative traders coexist in the same room." He cited the successful experience of "Ultimate Challenge": "Only real confrontation can ignite topics; Web3 is not lacking in dramatic stories."

Kiki revealed a grander IP blueprint: "The program will grow into a 12-season ongoing IP, ultimately building a content Lego ecosystem: viewers use on-chain certificates to unlock plot branches and vote to decide challenge levels. When behavioral data is crystallized into digital portraits, it can give rise to short dramas, offline events, and even personal exclusive NFTs."

The Web3 light variety show "On-Chain Big Player" produced in collaboration between Golden Finance and Twinkle will be launched in July,

This financial entertainment experiment that breaks the dimensional barrier may very well be the beginning of a new narrative in the crypto world.

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Note: This article is based on the live discussion of guests and does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks, and decisions should be made with caution.