Analysts warn: Strategy is on the verge of historic collapse, larger than FTX

In a bold and alarming statement, on-chain analyst OxChain raised the possibility of a catastrophic collapse related to Strategy (trước this is MicroStrategy), the Bitcoin proxy company co-founded by Michael Saylor. According to OxChain, this potential collapse could surpass FTX's infamous collapse. 'The Bitcoin strategy of Strategy resembles a Ponzi scheme' In a recent post on X (formerly known as Twitter), OxChain expressed concerns about Strategy's strong Bitcoin accumulation formula, suggesting that the company's activities resemble a Ponzi scheme. OxChain points out that since 2020, MicroStrategy has transformed from a traditional software company into a key player in the Bitcoin market, currently holding approximately 582,000 BTC, worth nearly 61 billion dollars.

However, OxChain asserts that this impressive figure is supported by leverage, debt, and shareholder dilution, rather than genuine faith in cryptocurrency. The analyst outlined Strategy's approach as a "cyclical financial loop": the company raises capital through stocks or bonds, buys Bitcoin, announces these purchases to push up the stock price, and then raises more capital The analyst asserts that this cycle remains effective as long as the price of Bitcoin continues to rise. However, with plans to sell $1 billion worth of new shares, OxChain believes Strategy is increasing its risk level Analysts predict a significant liquidation risk OxChain warns that the average cost of Strategy per Bitcoin is around $70,000, creating a precarious situation. The analyst added that if the price of Bitcoin drops significantly below this level, the company's treasury, currently valued at around $25 billion, could quickly start to incur losses. According to the analyst, although Saylor has publicly pledged to never sell Bitcoin, the reality of accounting and risk management could force the company to take action if market conditions deteriorate. In the first quarter of 2025, Strategy revealed an unrealized Bitcoin loss of $5.9 billion, highlighting the volatility of the asset. According to the new accounting standard ASC 350-60, the company is required to report fair value, eliminating the possibility of hiding behind book value. This transparency has led to legal consequences as shareholders filed a class-action lawsuit accusing Strategy of hiding the risks associated with the volatility of Bitcoin while actively raising funds. OxChain continues to announce in its series of social media posts that the role of Strategy as an access point to Bitcoin is gradually diminishing, especially as institutional capital flows into "more transparent and tightly regulated options," such as BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which has accumulated about 70 billion dollars in assets under management. The analyst emphasized that unlike Strategy, which is said to face dilution risks and operate with limited protective measures, IBIT offers a "more stable investment" for those looking to gain exposure to Bitcoin. OxChain added that if the Strategy fails, the consequences will be very serious. The company holds about 2.77% of the total Bitcoin supply, and a significant liquidation could shake the market. Analysts warn that a 22% drop in Bitcoin's price from the average purchase price could trigger corporate liquidations, potentially leading to one of the largest liquidation events in history. Finally, OxChain warns that Strategy is neither a hero nor a villain in the cryptocurrency ecosystem; instead, he states that it represents a "risk vector heavily dependent on leverage and market sentiment."