Recently, there has been a flood disaster in my hometown. I went back home and it took me a few days to settle down. Now I finally have time to sit down, check the market, and chat a bit (Part Two).

Most spot traders have now lost their direction, feeling confused about holding on, reluctant to cut losses. Repeated false breakouts and the complex international news have left people with no patience or capital. Wrong decisions often start at this moment. I've noticed that some friends in the comments section can't keep their money hidden; as soon as they have some USDT in their pockets, they want to trade, even if it's USDT from cutting losses, they still want to enter the market immediately.

In fact, there are many spot traders in the market who feel anxious if their money doesn't appreciate. Some, unable to resist the temptation, start trading contracts, going back and forth between long and short positions, making a few small profits but easily losing a large amount in one go. Those who engage in short-term spot trading often find themselves at a loss due to a lack of judgment; they buy some altcoins introduced by dynamic influencers after seeing them rise 10%-15%, only for them to drop back down immediately. Unable to cut their losses, they end up getting stuck. The younger and smarter ones go to BI AN ALpha to earn points, but the slippage is severe, making it almost impossible to profit, and one misstep can lead to a collapse again.

Many friends have slowly lost their principal like this. Don't always comfort yourself with conspiracy theories, changing dealers, and black box information like interest rate cuts. Ultimately, it's just your own reckless actions. No one can change the market, but you can control your own hands. If you are currently holding mainstream altcoins, why not choose to take a break? Why can't you retain a portion of your position and hold onto your tokens while observing?

The market is still waiting for a directional choice. For most ordinary players, this period is indeed not suitable for playing altcoin fluctuations, not suitable for large positions in altcoins, and even less suitable for futures trading. If you must operate, it is probably only possible to do some DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) investments in mainstream coins, along with some quantitative trading of mainstream altcoins. Friends who already have positions in mainstream altcoins can stake their tokens on-chain, which generally provides an annualized return of about 2%-5%. Those who choose to hold USDT and wait can also appropriately diversify into a few JYS for wealth management. Although the returns are not high, probably only around 1-2%, it is still a way to make money grow. These are the simplest operations, and new users may have higher returns. This part of the return is likely to cover the losses from cashing out after the depreciation of the US dollar in 2026.

Friends who are more capable and have their own channels can transfer some funds to the US stock market, focusing on the stocks of companies that replicate the micro-strategy approach or investing consistently in stablecoin concept stocks. I've seen some impressive profit data from friends in the group, although I don't have the capability to do so myself. However, I see that the experts in the group are indeed sharing this kind of information; they are not ordinary players but seasoned professionals with many years of experience.

Since we've opened up the discussion, let's dive deeper and look at the market issues from the perspective of altcoin promoters. To put it simply, many altcoin promoters really want to pump their coins, but the reality is that no one is buying even if they try. We can observe a phenomenon where when BTC rises, they attempt to follow suit, but retail investors in the market simply don't buy in. At the same time, many old investors holding low-priced tokens begin to sell off, as they realize they can't just hold on in this market and have adjusted their profit expectations downward. In such a situation, the promoters can only choose to defend selectively.

Moreover, the liquidity in the market is indeed very lacking at the moment. If it were possible to make money, which trader wouldn't want to push the price sky-high? ADA, DOGE, and SUI can be considered typical examples. These types of cryptocurrencies require turnover time and more abundant liquidity. ETH has been hovering around the pressure zone of 2800-3000 for so long, which is probably due to the same principle, but its situation is a bit more complicated, so I won't elaborate on that here.

Let’s talk about why large institutions in the over-the-counter market are not actively intervening in the altcoin space. They are cautious; currently, the only cryptocurrency that has real consensus is BTC. Moreover, large companies have many restrictions on allocating funds to risk assets, and it may not be that easy to reserve BTC, let alone other altcoins. Therefore, these institutions prefer to buy stocks of companies like MicroStrategy rather than wade into the murky waters of altcoins. As long as BTC doesn’t drop, these stocks can steadily rise, and if BTC surges, their growth rate can even surpass that of BTC. Additionally, stablecoin companies like Circle have naturally become the target of capital pursuit as the only benchmark in the current market. For players in the crypto market, the incremental funds that should flow into the market have been severely siphoned off, so it can be anticipated that even if interest rates are lowered in September this year, we shouldn’t expect a very dazzling market for altcoins.

However, some mainstream altcoins may benefit from this. You should have noticed that there are quite a few news reports about public companies buying cryptocurrencies. One company buys ETH, and another follows with SOL. Don’t think that this capital is aimed at building the crypto market; to put it bluntly, it's just replicating MicroStrategy's playbook: first, hoard coins at a low price, then pump up the stock price, and make a big profit in the stock market while also revitalizing their own company. It seems that this logic can indeed work, as retail investors in the U.S. stock market can accept it.

With this trend, there will only be more and more publicly listed companies buying cryptocurrencies in the future. It is rumored that companies are preparing to replicate this path, accumulating coins like ADA, XRP, and TRX. However, news is just news; if retail investors do not see the underlying logic clearly and do not understand their ultimate exit strategy, they can easily be harvested like chives.

Everyone knows that interest rate cuts can drive up coin prices, but when the time comes, will the market really move according to your imagined structure? Based on the above reasoning, many coins with daily trading volumes below 100,000 USD have already become the market's discarded pieces, a side dish in the dealer's hands. Continuing to hold may only lead you deeper into trouble. Therefore, in this round of cycles playing altcoin spot trading, you really can't focus too much on the big picture. Reviewing this round, many people have been harmed by the saying "buy new, not old." The correct interpretation of this phrase should be: buy strong, not weak; buy large, not small.

In April, someone asked me if I could play the ALpha track, and I directly replied that I didn't know very much, although there was a small team around me doing these things, but I really didn't understand it very well, and this track had a big conflict with my trading rules, and it was difficult to change these thinking when I was older. Later, I replied that any new things and tracks in the market and JYS can basically be profitable in the early stage, but for these projects, don't be too high-minded, and don't invest too much capital to play. For those new coins that have no concept of community popularity, the best choice is to ignore them directly, which can already help you avoid 90% of the pitfalls. As a result, at the beginning of June, this thing seemed to have cooled, and most of the leeks that followed up were cut halfway up the mountainside.

There was an old saying, "Do not go where there is contention, and do not engage in matters that promise long-term benefits." Popular coins and trending plays may seem enticing, but in reality, they are fraught with risk; those who promise sustained high returns are often traps set for harvesting. Last year, when I hoped for a 2-3 times return this year, I was laughed at. Perhaps only when you have truly experienced it will you understand the harshness and reality of the market.

Many of the texts in past public updates were written with heartfelt sincerity, but not many people truly understand and comprehend them. Is this year's market really completely devoid of opportunities? Not at all. As long as you hold BTC, as long as you can dive into the market and conduct in-depth research, or choose the right track and operational methods, if you absorb even a little of this, most people can still achieve relatively stable gains.

There are least people of this kind in the market.