Bitcoin can hold the mark of 100,000 USD as the third quarter season is forecasted to be sideways.

Bitcoin is experiencing a lackluster trading week, but the outlook could change if this cryptocurrency follows the expanding trend of global money supply. Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Strategy Director at Fidelity, notes that gold prices could receive support after global money supply growth reached 8.5% year-over-year, largely due to geopolitical tensions. However, due to its highly volatile nature, Bitcoin may exhibit a contrarian trend.

Timmer noted that both gold and Bitcoin are recording an increasing Sharpe ratio – a metric that measures return over risk – indicating the potential for improved risk-adjusted returns. However, Bitcoin's dual role – being seen both as a store of value and being considered a "Nasdaq-like tech stock" – is undermining its stability.

Gold prices are based on the growth of global money supply | Source: Jurrien Timmer/XTony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Markets, shares a similar view that in 2025, Bitcoin will still behave like a risky asset such as US stocks, rather than a safe-haven asset like gold.

Nick Ruck, the research director at LVRG, also stated that the story of "digital gold" is gradually losing its appeal, as most traders are only interested in short-term fluctuations rather than viewing BTC as a risk-optimizing asset.

Compare the Sharpe ratio of gold and Bitcoin | Source: Jurrien Timmer/X## Bitcoin Season: Q3 sideways, Q4 may brighten

With the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at 4.25%–4.50% since December 2024, the price of Bitcoin this week continues to struggle, reflecting the market's sensitivity to unclear monetary policy and global tensions. However, in an interview with CNBC on Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that the possibility of interest rate cuts could occur as early as next July.

Waller also denied concerns that the new tax levels would lead to a sharp increase in inflation, thereby paving the way for a loosening of monetary policy in the short term.

If the Fed cuts interest rates next month, this could propel a recovery for Bitcoin in Q3. However, according to historical data, strong upward momentum typically only appears in Q4. Timothy Peterson, an economist specializing in the Bitcoin network, points out that over the past 10 years, the median return of BTC from June 1 to September 30 has only reached about 1% for all four months – not every month.

This trend indicates that BTC may maintain around the level above 100,000 USD for most of Q3, before potentially breaking out strongly in Q4.

Monthly profits of Bitcoin over the past decade | Source: Timothy Peterson/X## Technical pressure and support level

During the trading session on Friday in London, Bitcoin dropped sharply after hitting a liquidity level around 106,000 USD. Technical analysis shows that the downtrend is still predominant on both short-term and long-term time frames, increasing the likelihood that BTC will continue to sweep liquidity down to the area of 102,614 USD in the coming days.

If selling pressure continues to increase, the price may fall to the level of 100,000 USD – coinciding with the old bottom and the important fair value gap ( on the daily chart.

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