The famous analyst gave a date for the altcoin season.

In today's context, where global markets are tested by geopolitical tensions, the crypto investor's eye is naturally on both the price performance of Bitcoin and altcoins. Despite the uncertainty created by the Israel-Iran war, the BTC price has not fallen below 100 thousand dollars, but some major altcoins continue to struggle significantly.

Crypto analyst Jesse Eckel, who shared his views on the near future of the market, where Bitcoin has surpassed 100 thousand dollars but most altcoins have returned to all-time lows, was recently a guest on a podcast called Milk Road Show.

Eckel was asked what he thought about the crypto market in 2025: "The model I have in mind for early 2025 was probably the same as what most people in the crypto world had in mind. We all think according to the classic four-year cycle. Everyone was expecting, 'Okay, it will be like in 2021, the market will soar at the beginning of the year.'" Eckel continued: "But after Trump won the election, prices suddenly rose, and the expected liquidity support did not materialize in the market. So everyone acted according to the old model, but that model was no longer valid."

"The rise after Trump was speculative"

Commenting on the slight movement in the altcoin market immediately after U.S. President Donald Trump's election, Eckel stated: "Technically, prices increased, but there were no strong fundamentals required for an altcoin season. It was merely a speculative rise, driven by the rotation of crypto capital among itself. Therefore, it was not sustainable and quickly pulled back."

Eckel, who said he found the market's reaction to the aggressive tariffs implemented by Trump "too exaggerated," stated: "Prices had fallen sharply after the tariffs. This decline was too exaggerated. People were overly scared. Then the markets started saying, 'Alright, maybe this tariff situation isn't that bad.' At the same time, the thought that 'maybe the economy won't completely collapse' became dominant, and prices returned to their previous levels."

"The four-year cycle model in crypto is no longer valid"

The fact that Bitcoin halving occurs every four years (halving) and that past bull markets have also worked according to this schedule has always made four-year price cycles more important in the crypto market. Eckel took a different approach: "The beginning of this year made me realize that the 'four-year cycle model' is no longer valid. This was a very superficial model. That's why I did a serious in-depth analysis. I tried to get to the root of the question, "What actually triggers these cycles?" It's not just the Bitcoin halving, it's not the M2 money supply."

But is it possible that the four-year cycle has really lost its meaning? "The 'four-year cycle,' as most people think, is a very simplified expression. At one level, this cycle is said to be linked to the M2 money supply and liquidity. That's right. Since 2008, there has been an increase in liquidity almost every four years," Eckel said, adding: "After the 2008 financial crisis, central banks printed money like crazy and reduced interest rates to zero. This radically changed the functioning of the system. In 2013, liquidity skyrocketed, and in 2014 it withdrew again. In 2016-17, there was also a significant liquidity flow. 2021, on the other hand, was the big boom we all know. But people just look at the M2 and say, 'Look, it's increasing.' Whereas, M2 always increases. They are printing money all the time. This chart is good content material, but it's of little use in terms of analysis. What really matters is the annual growth rate."

"If you look at the annual percentage increase, peaks like 2013, 2017, and 2021 immediately stand out. The analyst who stated that all bull markets are fueled by high liquidity explosions answered the question of why global liquidity explodes every four years as follows: 'The answer lies in debt. The entire system works on debt, not just governments, but individuals as well. This level of debt has grown so much that the system is constantly on the verge of breaking. In the 1970s, the burden of the debt system was not that large. Perhaps something would break every 10-15 years, and liquidity would be pumped into the system. But now the ship is full of holes. Every four years we say, 'it exploded from somewhere.'"

Bold Price Predictions for Bitcoin and ETH

The podcast host asked, "You predicted that BTC would be between 170,000 and 190,000, and for Ethereum (ETH), between 13,000 and 20,000 dollars. Are you still behind those predictions?" Eckel replied: "Yes, I said those for the end of the cycle and I still stand by them. The ranges change based on the speed and magnitude of liquidity. When you look at the M2 money supply chart, those 'liquidity bubbles' are very pronounced. The bigger that bubble is, the higher prices go. If there is a large money printing for Bitcoin, we could see 170k or even 250k. The situation is similar for Ethereum."

The analyst, who stated that the crypto market needs a new spark, said, "For example, a catalyst is needed such as ETF approval, the Trump election, or a major turnaround from the SEC. However, currently, the global M2 growth is not sufficient for an alt season. In other words, 'abundance' is lacking."

"However, there is currently not enough global M2 growth to initiate an altcoin season. For an altcoin season, not only liquidity but also the direction is important. Is the liquidity increasing or decreasing? On the other hand, there is also liquidity created through credit: money is created as people borrow. Currently, credit conditions are not very favorable. More liquidity, broader credit, and economic momentum are needed."

Gave the date for the altcoin season

Eckel said that according to the model he created, these conditions could be ready by the end of 2025. "It is technically possible that the altcoin season will start in 2025 at the latest. But if we look at the trajectory of the debt cycle, this date may sag even further. In terms of the debt cycle, we are currently in the 'winter' phase, but the 'spring' is approaching," the analyst said, adding: "We are expected to enter the new spring phase in September 2025. This is important because this momentum in the debt cycle determines the fundamental infrastructure of the altcoin season. So, if liquidity comes in fast enough, we could see an altcoin season by the end of 2025. But if it doesn't, it could drag on to 2026."

The analyst responded to the question, "So do you think this altcoin season will be like previous cycles? Or will only certain sectors rise this time?" with the following answer: "I think when people say 'There are too many tokens in crypto,' they are usually referring to memecoins. There are millions of tokens that have no relation to real projects, and 99.999% of them are either memecoins or outright garbage."

What does "real projects" mean?

"I think there are about 40 million memecoins out there right now. In terms of truly innovative, revenue-generating projects managed by a team, there are around 1,000 to 2,000," said the analyst, who stated that he conducted detailed research using analytical tools like 0x3, Lit, and Grok, and that even they indicated the number of tokens that could be considered 'real' in this range: "The rest are either useless or are already a ponzi or memecoin. So when I say altcoin season, I'm referring to these 1,000 to 2,000 'real' projects. Among millions of memecoins, no one can make the right choice. But when people start searching for a 'real project', there will be a differentiation among these 2,000 tokens."

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading movement carries risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.