After a modest start in the European market, the rally in the early Asian session caused EURUSD to stall at the 200-hour moving average (≈ 1.1518) and break below the 100-hour line (1.1496). Dip hunters stepped in on their second dip of the day, just before the bottom of last week's volatility at 1.1445, marking another successful defence of the level (see green numbered circle). The sell-off in the US dollar following dovish comments from Fed Governor Bowman – echoing Waller's hint of a "rate cut in July" on Friday – while calmer news from the Middle East pushed US Treasury yields lower. The pair is back above the two-hour moving average and is now testing Friday's peak near 1.1543. A clean breakout would confirm an intraday bullish reversal and target the swing highs of 1.1578, 1.1614 over the past few weeks, as well as the yearly highs (dating back to 2021) at 1.16297. Conversely, failure to hold the double moving average range (1.1518-1.1496) will return momentum to sellers and refocus on 1.1466 and the pivotal 1.1445 bottom.
Key technical level
Resistance level:
1.1543 – Friday/Daily High
1.1578 – May 24 Fluctuation Upper Limit
1.1614 – June 16 high
1.16297 - Annual high, traced back to 2021
Support level:
1.1518 – 200 Hour MA
1.1496 – 100 Hour MA
1.1445 – Fluctuation level (green circle)
1.1416 – 38.2% retracement level
As long as EURUSD stays above the 1.1518-1.1496 area, the bias remains tilted upwards.
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EURUSD short-term breaks 1.1543 may open bullish, follow resistance levels at 1.1578 and 1.1614.
After a modest start in the European market, the rally in the early Asian session caused EURUSD to stall at the 200-hour moving average (≈ 1.1518) and break below the 100-hour line (1.1496). Dip hunters stepped in on their second dip of the day, just before the bottom of last week's volatility at 1.1445, marking another successful defence of the level (see green numbered circle). The sell-off in the US dollar following dovish comments from Fed Governor Bowman – echoing Waller's hint of a "rate cut in July" on Friday – while calmer news from the Middle East pushed US Treasury yields lower. The pair is back above the two-hour moving average and is now testing Friday's peak near 1.1543. A clean breakout would confirm an intraday bullish reversal and target the swing highs of 1.1578, 1.1614 over the past few weeks, as well as the yearly highs (dating back to 2021) at 1.16297. Conversely, failure to hold the double moving average range (1.1518-1.1496) will return momentum to sellers and refocus on 1.1466 and the pivotal 1.1445 bottom.
Key technical level
Resistance level: 1.1543 – Friday/Daily High 1.1578 – May 24 Fluctuation Upper Limit 1.1614 – June 16 high 1.16297 - Annual high, traced back to 2021
Support level: 1.1518 – 200 Hour MA 1.1496 – 100 Hour MA 1.1445 – Fluctuation level (green circle) 1.1416 – 38.2% retracement level
As long as EURUSD stays above the 1.1518-1.1496 area, the bias remains tilted upwards.