Bitcoin's dominance rate reaches a new peak as hopes for an altcoin season fade.

Major indicators predict the altcoin season – such as the dominance rate of Bitcoin (BTC.D) and the Altcoin Season Index continue to show a negative trend in June. These developments make the likelihood of a strong bullish altcoin rally increasingly fragile.

As political tensions between the US and Iran escalate, investors seem to be restructuring their altcoin portfolios to mitigate risk.

Bitcoin's dominance level peaks since 2021

As of now, the dominance rate of Bitcoin (BTC.D) – a measure of Bitcoin's market capitalization compared to the entire crypto market – has reached a new high in 2025. This index has now surpassed 65%, marking the highest level since February 2021.

Data from TradingView shows that BTC.D has increased consecutively for seven quarters without any quarter of adjustment. This trend reflects strong long-term confidence in Bitcoin from both retail and institutional investors.

Analyst Rekt Capital has made a bold prediction that BTC.D could increase by 71% in the near future.

If that happens, the altcoin market may experience a strong correction. A similar scenario occurred in February 2025, when Bitcoin's dominance rate peaked and led to deep declines in many major altcoins.

Bitcoin's dominance rate (BTC.D) | Source: Rekt Capital "Currently, Bitcoin's dominance rate is about 5.5% away from the 71% mark. Altcoin will not go to 0, but may react similarly to February 2025," Rekt Capital predicts.

In February 2025, the altcoin market capitalization (TOTAL2) decreased from $1.4 trillion to $1 trillion. If Rekt Capital's prediction comes true, the altcoin market capitalization could slide below $700 billion.

Nic, co-founder of CoinBureau, also believes that BTC.D could rise to 70% – close to Rekt Capital's assessment. Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of RealVision, shares the same perspective. He believes that altcoin will decline more sharply than Bitcoin if any correction occurs.

The escalating tensions between the US and Iran, with airstrikes and threats of greater military deployment from President Trump, have caused unpredictable market fluctuations.

Although many leaders in the crypto industry remain optimistic, this confidence is not extended to altcoin.

Altcoin season index hits a 2-year low

As of June 23, the altcoin season index has dropped to 12 points – the lowest level in the past two years. This index tracks whether altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days. A level of 75 or higher typically indicates that an "altcoin season" is underway. However, the current figure is far from that threshold.

"This is the time we are farthest from altcoin season in nearly a year if you believe in the altcoin season index," Nic commented.

Altcoin Season Index | Source: Blockchain CenterHowever, the famous analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out an interesting pattern. In recent years, the Altcoin Season Index often bottoms out in June or July.

This shows the seasonal trend: investors tend to pour money into Bitcoin at the beginning of summer, and then may rotate back to altcoin in July or August.

Analyst 0xNobler also agrees that the altcoin season often begins in the summer. This assessment aligns with the previous prediction that Bitcoin's dominance rate may continue to rise to 71% before entering any correction.

Therefore, according to these analysts, patience is the key factor for altcoin investors, despite the unexpected fluctuations caused by geopolitical tensions.

However, a recent report has pointed out many reasons why the "altcoin winter" will last longer. And even when the altcoin season occurs, not every project in the current market will benefit.

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