#piAn analyst forecasted the peak price of bitcoin above $200,000 in 2025

CryptoQuant contributor Carmelo Aleman, based on historical patterns, forecasted that the price of the first cryptocurrency will reach $205 097 - this will be the extreme of the current market cycle.
According to him, metrics like MVRV, HODL waves, SOPR, or dynamics of exchange reserves are useful - they "give an opportunity to understand what is happening in the chain and make informed decisions".

"Constantly searching for micro signals to extract insights, although often useful, sometimes distracts from more overarching cyclical factors that truly impact the long-term dynamics of bitcoin," Aleman noted.

An analyst suggests paying attention to the digital gold yield chart since 2011 - it shows a recurring cycle: 'three years of growth are followed by a year of consolidation, which corresponds to a four-year halving rhythm'.

"The significance of the current phase is that, according to this metric, while maintaining the typical pace of Bitcoin in the third year, in 2025, it may increase by 120%. Starting from $93,226, the price could reach $205,097 - potentially becoming the cycle's extreme," the specialist suggested.

He believes that the continuation of the trend may make 2025 the 'third consecutive bullish year', thereby completing another phase of growth.

"This thesis is confirmed by other cyclical indicators as well, in particular, realized capitalization, which in 2025 continues to move towards new historical highs," Aleman emphasized.

The expert added that the annual yield chart allows to filter out market noise and focus on the cyclical nature of the first cryptocurrency.

"He vividly demonstrates that beyond micrometrics and short-term candlestick patterns, there is a structural rhythm that bitcoin follows with astonishing regularity: three years of growth are followed by a year of compression," the analyst noted.

According to him, the long-term perspective helps investors "keep calm during market fluctuations and better correlate their actions with the historical dynamics of the asset".

Remind that CryptoQuant analysts noted the lack of profit-taking interest among bitcoin whales.