Bitcoin Cash is leading the surge, Cardano is going against the trend as traders turn their eyes to the Fed

The impact of the ceasefire order between Israel and Iran seems to have been fully absorbed by the market, as the lively momentum at the beginning of the week has given way to a more subdued trading atmosphere today.

Only two coins – Pi and Maple Finance – recorded an increase of over 10%, while the average increase of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization only reached about 2%. The average decline of this group is also comparable, reflecting widespread waiting sentiment.

However, buying power still exists as the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rises to 3.283 trillion USD, equivalent to an increase of 0.81% in the past 24 hours.

In contrast, the traditional financial market maintains a stable pace. The S&P 500 index rose slightly by 0.07% to 6,097 points, amid the context that the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to keep the basic interest rate unchanged at around 4.25%–4.5%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is "in a good position to be patient," waiting for clearer signals from the economy before making the next steps.

Forecast for June, analysts on Myriad — the market prediction platform operated by Dastan (, the parent company of Decrypt) — believe that the Nasdaq index will outperform the S&P 500.

Although the market is generally quite "quiet", there are still some bright spots. Bitcoin Cash and Cardano are two prominent names that attract the attention of investors – perhaps in search of some excitement in a trading session considered to lack drama.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) makes a spectacular breakthrough

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) – the coin considered the first fork of Bitcoin – has just made a strong mark with a 6% increase, rising to $481.30 and officially breaking through the important resistance level at $470. This price level has been a strong barrier for most of the month, making the current breakout more notable, especially as it occurs alongside high trading volume and a series of technical signals leaning towards an upward trend.

Daily BCH/USDT chart | Source: TradingViewRSI indicator (Relative Strength Index) is currently at 61 – reflecting a strong upward momentum but not yet in the overbought territory. This is a signal that the bulls are in control of the market, and there is still room for the price to continue rising before it reaches the 70 mark, where profit-taking often occurs. In the 50–70 range, the RSI is typically considered a positive zone, reinforcing confidence in the current uptrend.

Meanwhile, the ADX indicator ( Average Directional Index ) is currently at 20 - below the threshold of 25, which is considered the standard to confirm a strong trend. However, the slight upward trend of the ADX is subtly indicating that momentum is building and may lead to a more pronounced breakout. It should be noted that the ADX does not indicate whether the trend is upward or downward, but only measures its strength - and when it exceeds 25, that is a signal that a new trend has formed.

In terms of the moving average, BCH is trading above both the 50-day EMA around $385( and the 200-day EMA near $352), creating a clear gap. This is seen as a strong signal indicating that the current upward trend is not only clear but also has high durability. Notably, the fact that the 50-day EMA is above the 200-day EMA indicates that the short-term momentum is outperforming the long-term trend – reflecting positive sentiment as investors are willing to pay much higher prices than a few months ago.

In addition, the Squeeze Momentum indicator is currently in the "ON" state and trending upwards – indicating that the previous price squeeze phase is being released in an upward direction. This is a commonly used tool to identify moments when the market is about to enter a phase of high volatility after a period of stagnation. Although not definitive, the "ON" state serves as a warning to pay attention: a major breakout – or a strong correction – could be very close.

Overall, BCH is in a clear upward trend, but the market is still somewhat hesitant, as reflected by mixed signals from some technical indicators. This makes the current price level an important psychological test for both bulls and bears.

Important technical milestones:

• Nearest support: $460–$470 ( the breakout zone will become support )
• Strong support: $385 ( EMA 50-day )
• Nearest resistance: $500 (psychological level and the next barrier)
• Strong resistance: $540 ( target according to the measurement model from the recent accumulation area )

Cardano (ADA) is clearly weakening

In a recent livestream, Charles Hoskinson — the founder of Cardano — made a noteworthy proposal: to use nearly 100 million USD from the Cardano treasury to buy a basket of stablecoins, Bitcoin, and other synthetic assets.

This proposal can be viewed from multiple perspectives. On the positive side, it is an effort to enhance liquidity for Cardano's DeFi ecosystem while promoting decentralization — a key factor for sustainable growth. However, the downside of the proposal raises the question: Is the development team gradually losing faith in the ADA token itself — the main token of the network, which has not experienced a clear growth cycle since 2021?

Cardano's transaction data (ADA) | Source: TradingViewMarket reaction over the past 24 hours shows skepticism overshadowing expectations. The price of ADA has dropped sharply by 3.5%, falling to the level of $0.5669 as a series of technical signals issued negative warnings.

The RSI index has currently dropped to 35, approaching the oversold area below the 30 mark. Although it has not completely entered the oversold state, such a low RSI level indicates that selling pressure is increasingly rising. While oversold conditions sometimes open up opportunities for a technical rebound, the current weak momentum suggests that the downtrend may continue. In fact, an RSI below 40 is often a sign that bears are in control, especially when accompanied by other negative signals.

Daily ADA/USDT Chart | Source: TradingViewAt the same time, the ADX index reached 26 — a level indicating that a strong trend is forming. However, since the current trend is downward, a high ADX does not carry positive significance. Instead, it further reinforces the strength of the downward momentum. This is also why technical analysts always combine ADX with the direction of the price: a high ADX combined with a declining price often means that weakening momentum is dominating the market.

Not stopping there, ADA is currently trading below both the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA — a worrying signal for the short and medium-term outlook. When the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term moving average, it is often an indicator of prolonged selling pressure and a decline in investor confidence.

Finally, the Squeeze Momentum indicator is also in the "OFF" state with negative momentum, indicating that the recent accumulation phase has been broken to the downside. Price volatility has "burst" to the negative side and it is very likely that the current trend will continue to be maintained in the near future.

Important technical milestones:

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