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$Circle(CRCL)$ 【Circle Breaks 200: Has the Wind Really Changed?】



In just two days, Circle plummeted from a high of 198 USD, with its market value evaporating by nearly a quarter. The gap formed by the high opening on June 20 (199–231 USD) has been completely filled, and the 200 USD level has also been breached, intensifying technical pressure.

The options market is sending subtle signals: the total daily transaction volume reached 437,000 contracts, which is 1.55 times the daily average; the Put/Call ratio decreased to 1.28, and the open interest ratio fell to 1.37, indicating a marginal loosening of defensive positions. The implied volatility (IV) dropped to 132%, suggesting that expectations of extreme volatility have partially been released; the T+2 contract Max Pain is at $250, currently about $50 below this price. If short sellers lock in profits and market makers hedge, a technical rebound cannot be ruled out in the short term.

Valuation remains high, with a P/E exceeding 2000 times. Reddit hot posts are generally pessimistic, pointing directly to the "bubble not being squeezed dry"; however, on YouTube, some bloggers point out that 200 dollars just corresponds to the lower edge of the previous gap, which may serve as a potential support zone. Disagreements are intensifying, with the long and short positions focusing on this.

Do you think Circle can pull back using Max Pain? Is the drop in IV a turning point or a trap?

Not investment advice.

#Circle
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