Is the current price of Bitcoin (BTC) very expensive or very cheap? Here are the analyst's opinions.

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Crypto analyst Axel Adler provided important data on Bitcoin's current market position. Adler assessed how expensive or cheap the current price level of Bitcoin is compared to the average cost for investors, based on the "Realized Supply to Bitcoin Distribution" metric.

According to Adler, "Realized Cap" represents the total dollar value calculated based on the most recent prices at which Bitcoins have moved on the network. The ratio between this metric and the Bitcoin price allows for a comparison of today's price with the average cost paid by investors.

"Ratio = Bitcoin Price / Realized Supply," this value, defined in this way, is likened to the price/earnings (F/K) ratio in the stock markets. Adler said, "The higher the ratio, the more expensive Bitcoin is; the lower it is, the cheaper it can be evaluated."

According to Adler, the current Bitcoin price is slightly above the annual average based on this ratio. This situation indicates that the market is neither in an overbought nor an oversold position, meaning it is maintaining a neutral stance. Adler reminded that a similar ratio was observed before the rise when Bitcoin rose from 74 thousand dollars to 107 thousand dollars in November 2024.

In his analysis, Adler referred to another important indicator, the "365-Day Bitcoin Price Change" metric, stating that this rate is currently around 30%. In other words, Adler noted that Bitcoin has recorded an annual value increase of about 30%, and if a classic macro cycle is followed, this increase could rise to 60-70%. At this point, he expressed that investors would decide whether or not to realize profits.

"When this threshold level is reached, investors will either prefer to take profits or expect the uptrend to continue," said Adler, noting that a similar structure has been ongoing since September 2023.

*It is not investment advice.

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