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Why hasn't the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates yet???
The Federal Reserve (FED) has not lowered interest rates today, precisely because the macroeconomic control policies of the Federal Reserve (FED) are gradually becoming ineffective, specifically including
1. Some of the overseas dollar liquidity has been drawn away by stablecoins in virtual currencies. The United States has no foreign exchange controls, and signs of currency exchange can only be seen from the daily operations of large banks. USDC has grown from several hundred billion in scale two years ago to several trillion this year, but the liquidity has already reached several trillion. It is important to note that this is still the strictly defined M0 currency in circulation in the market, not counting the leveraged BTC.
2. The previous interest rate cuts followed by hikes, similar to the actions of central banks in many countries during economic crises, lead many to question whether the Federal Reserve's decisions on rate cuts based on employment and inflation indicators are valid.
The Federal Reserve's adjustment of interest rates is equivalent to adjusting the yield of the underlying assets, while the transmission effects of employment rates and inflation are delayed. The collapse of the economic bubble in Japan in the 1990s is a good example; labor dispatching only became popular after 2000. Even in the highly sensitive American market, it is difficult to reflect all the symptoms following interest rate hikes or cuts.
Therefore, the performance of the last emergency interest rate hike seems more like a result of The Federal Reserve (FED) realizing its delayed response. Don't think of the US central bank as an all-knowing and all-powerful Cthulhu; the vast bureaucratic system makes it difficult to analyze data efficiently and comprehensively. If it were capable, it wouldn't have led to the technical bankruptcies of the previous mid-sized banks.
3. Therefore, the current situation between The Federal Reserve (FED) and Trump feels a bit like each side is trying to trap the other; whoever executes the interest rate cuts will be able to say that the economic issues and employment problems are caused by the other side. If all the macroeconomic tools have been used and it still doesn't work, it definitely isn't their own problem.
Of course, there is also a possibility that The Federal Reserve (FED) can tame inflation and Trump can handle employment. Whoever achieves this first will earn a reputation for a smooth landing and even re-election. Even the strong dollar cannot currently achieve the capital accumulation needed to shift the local economy from imports to domestic sales without any bottom line.
The manufacturing dilemma in the United States is very similar to that in Southeast Asian countries, where the government is unwilling to cover the infrastructure/initial investment, and private owners are hesitant to take over high-interest projects for fear of them being unfinished. Financial regulation is concerned about the infiltration of virtual currencies into the financial system's decision-making, so they can only proceed step by step, first relaxing regulations and then using direct financing to improve the return rate on funds.