Market Analysis: Bitcoin and Ethereum are rising, with Solana performing even better.

Gate news, traders are weighing the upcoming macroeconomic data, comments from The Federal Reserve (FED), and geopolitical signals, with Bitcoin prices holding above $107,000. As June draws to a close, the Crypto Assets market is at a critical moment: The Federal Reserve (FED) keeps the Intrerest Rate unchanged at 4.25-4.5%, while concerns about infrastructure attacks or disruptions in shipping that could harm supply are gradually fading, leading to a continued fall in oil prices.

Since the beginning of 2025, the S&P 500 index has risen by 2%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq index is nearing historical highs, creating a favorable environment for risk assets. The recent easing of tensions in the Middle East has alleviated pressure on the energy market, with oil prices retreating from peaks above $77 to around $65, and prices for commodities such as gold and silver have also begun to brake.

What is the future direction of Crypto Assets? Predictors on Myriad, a prediction market developed by Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt, are currently optimistic that Bitcoin's price will remain above $108,000 this week, but the advantage is slim. Myriad users have set the probability of Bitcoin staying at $108 or above before July 4th at 51%. However, investors are still eagerly awaiting: will there be a new round of price increase? Here is the situation shown in the chart:

Bitcoin (BTC): Bullish momentum strengthens

(Source: TradingView)

The weekly chart shows that multiple bullish signals are converging. The 50-day moving average (the average price of BTC over the past 50 days) is firmly below the current price, around $87,918, providing strong support. More importantly, the gap between the 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average continues to widen – a typical signal of sustained upward momentum that usually attracts trend-following traders.

Although Bitcoin is in a downtrend, the Average Directional Index (ADX) reading is 24, which has remained at its lowest threshold over a longer time frame, indicating that the trend is strengthening. The ADX measures trend strength, regardless of direction—readings below 20 indicate no trend, while readings above 25 confirm that a trend is established. This crossover suggests that after several weeks of consolidation, Bitcoin may be entering a more decisive directional move.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 62, indicating a good bullish momentum and that it is not close to the overbought zone. RSI measures the speed and magnitude of price changes on a scale of 0-100. An RSI above 70 typically indicates overbought conditions, where traders may expect a price correction, while below 30 indicates that prices are in an oversold level. Bitcoin's current RSI value is around 60, suggesting there is still room for further upward movement before reaching resistance levels, but over time, market speculation is slowing down, as evidenced by the decline in RSI values since early May.

The Squeeze Momentum indicator shows a "close" state, indicating that volatility has been released from a recent squeeze phase. This usually occurs after significant fluctuations, suggesting that the market is digesting gains and preparing for the next round of increases.

Ethereum (ETH): Break Free from Consolidation As of the time of writing, Ethereum has risen 12.2% in the past week to $2,474, providing some relief to the market after months of underperformance, but the technical indicators presented on the weekly chart are more complex.

(Source: TradingView)

From the weekly chart, the strong trends of Ethereum and Bitcoin show a concerning divergence. The current price is at 2,474 USD, having rebounded from recent lows, but still below two key moving averages. The 200-week EMA (shown as the slower moving average in the chart) seems to be around 2,552 USD, while the 50-week EMA is around 2,707 USD, slightly above the current price. This configuration of price fluctuating between the two moving averages typically indicates that the price is in a consolidation phase, which is worrying for medium-term investors.

The ADX is at 21, indicating a non-trending state, which confirms what the price movement suggests: Ethereum is currently in a wide-ranging oscillation zone, lacking clear directional momentum. An ADX below 25 indicates a lack of strong trends, meaning traders should expect the price to continue oscillating and fluctuating within a range, rather than showing sustained directional movements.

The RSI is at 51, positioned at the neutral midpoint, neither overbought nor oversold. While this provides room for bidirectional fluctuations in the market, it also reflects the market's indecision. After a 12% weekly increase, there may be expectations for a stronger momentum indicator—an RSI that remains neutral suggests that this is more of a relief rally rather than the beginning of a new upward trend.

This indecision is also reflected in the Myriad prediction market, where users currently have differing opinions on the next movement of Ethereum: will it rise to $3,000 before the end of the year, or will it fall back to $2,000? Predictors still slightly outnumber bears, and users currently believe there is a 55.1% chance that ETH will rise rather than fall.

On the other hand, the squeeze momentum indicator shows "OFF" and is biased towards "bearish", which adds to the bearish factors. This suggests that after the recent increase in volatility, the market may be preparing to decline again, rather than continuing to rise.

The most concerning aspect is the overall chart pattern: ETH seems to be forming a large descending triangle, or is positioned between the support level of about $1,500 and the resistance level of $3,000-$3,500. The recent rebound from $1,500 may encourage traders, but the technical outlook remains challenging until the ETH price can break through and hold above the moving averages. It is worth noting that since March 2024, the price has shown a pattern of rapid increases followed by slow declines, with subsequent rises failing to break through the previous resistance levels.

ETH Key Levels

Immediate support level: $2,250 (recent consolidation low) Strong support level: $1,500 - $1,750 (main support level tested multiple times) Immediate resistance level: $2,552 (50-week moving average) Strong resistance levels: $2,707 (200-week moving average) and $3,000 (psychological barrier)

Solana (SOL): Potential Breakout Player This Week

(Source: TradingView)

Solana rose 16.5% this week to $158.12, becoming the undisputed leader, thanks to U.S. regulators advancing necessary regulatory processes to make spot SOL exchange-traded fund (ETF) a reality in the U.S. market.

From the weekly chart perspective, Solana presents the most optimistic technical outlook among the three major Crypto Assets, despite its slightly different trajectory. Currently, Solana is trading at $158.12, with the potential to decisively reclaim a position above the 50-week moving average (around $150). More importantly, the 200-week moving average is currently around $100. This price configuration above the two weekly moving averages represents a bullish market structure, which typically attracts position buyers.

However, the ADX reading is only 13 and there is no trend status, revealing an important detail: despite Solana's weekly increase of up to 16.5%, it has not yet established a strong trend environment within the weekly time frame. An ADX below 20 indicates very weak trend strength, suggesting that this movement may be more of a significant rebound within a range rather than the start of a sustained trend. This low reading could actually provide an opportunity for traders: if SOL can maintain these levels and the ADX begins to rise above 20-25, it would indicate that a new trend is forming.

The RSI is at 59, showing a moderate bullish momentum, having recovered from the previous oversold condition, but it has not yet reached the overbought territory above 70. This healthy reading indicates that there is still room for further upside, provided that no momentum indicators immediately present technical resistance.

Most notably, the squeeze momentum indicator shows an "open" state on the weekly timeframe, indicating that the market is in a compression phase. Given the recent price surge, this is particularly intriguing - it suggests that despite a 16.5% increase in price, volatility remains relatively compressed in the long term. When a strong squeeze appears on the weekly chart, it often leads to volatility that lasts for several weeks or even months.

The volume curve shows that there is a large amount of accumulation in the $100-120 range, which should become a strong support level. Recently, driven by the increase in trading volume, a breakout above $140 occurred, which is encouraging for SOL bulls.

SOL Key Levels

Immediate support level: $140 (200-week moving average and psychological level) Strong support level: 100-120 USD (high trading volume accumulation area) Immediate resistance level: $160-180 (a level that has been present since 2024) Strong resistance level: $200-210 (mobile target calculated from the baseline pattern)

Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, please be cautious of risks.

(Source: Decrypt)