Further Discussion on the Scale Law of Crypto Assets Ecosystem

The development of blockchain technology is changing rapidly, but its inherent laws always follow a certain invisible scale law. Recently, with the delays of some large model projects and the slowdown of hardware technology advancements, we can't help but ponder: is the Crypto Assets ecosystem also about to reach its development bottleneck?

The Dilemma of Full Node Data Scale

Full nodes are a core component of the blockchain network, and their data scale directly reflects the operating status of the public chain. Currently, the full node data of a well-known public chain has reached an astonishing 400TB, far exceeding Ethereum's 13TB and Bitcoin's 643.2GB. This volume of data not only creates significant barriers for ordinary users to participate but also poses severe challenges to hardware technology.

The original intention of Bitcoin's design was to keep pace with hardware development, but as Moore's Law gradually becomes ineffective, this balance has become increasingly difficult. The advancement of storage technology has also gradually slowed down, and the 3D NAND stacking technology of manufacturers like Samsung seems to be approaching engineering limits. This means that, in the foreseeable future, it may be difficult for the underlying hardware of public chains to achieve a qualitative leap.

The Ceiling of the Token Economic System

If we use the currently best-performing public chain as a benchmark, we can roughly estimate that the limit of the public chain economic system is about 300 billion dollars. This is not an absolute ceiling, but a reasonable expectation under the current market environment.

From the perspective of growth patterns, the Crypto Assets market has experienced a transition from super-linear to sub-linear. In the early days, the growth of Ethereum from 1 dollar to 200 dollars reflected super-linear characteristics. However, the subsequent growth has shown typical sub-linear features, with the growth rate gradually slowing down.

Downward Trend of DeFi Yield

DeFi, as an important field of blockchain applications, is also experiencing a process of returning to rationality from its peak yields. From an early project's annualized yield of 20% to the current stablecoin project's 90-day moving average annualized yield of 5.51%, we can see that DeFi yields are aligning more closely with traditional finance.

It is worth noting that even if more real-world assets (RWA) are brought on-chain in the future, it may further lower the average yield of DeFi. This aligns with the sub-linear scaling law: the expansion of the system's scale does not necessarily lead to an improvement in capital efficiency.

Conclusion

Looking at the development history of blockchain, we find that the differentiation trend among public chains continues. Bitcoin is gradually becoming estranged from the on-chain ecosystem, and the imperfection of the on-chain credit system has led to the over-collateralization model becoming mainstream. Whether it is stablecoins or RWA, they are essentially leveraged on-chain representation of off-chain assets.

Under the current technological conditions and market environment, the blockchain ecosystem seems to be reaching its development limit. It has only been 5 years since the explosion of DeFi, and the entire Ethereum ecosystem has only existed for about 10 years. We may be standing at a new crossroads, anticipating the arrival of the next breakthrough innovation.