[MicroStrategy adds nearly 5000 BTC, but options data reveals a "low volatility high open interest" signal]

On June 30, MicroStrategy announced the purchase of an additional 4,980 BTC, bringing its total holdings close to 600,000, with an average price of $70,982, funded by a new round of ATM financing. After the announcement, the stock price rose and then fell back, closing at $373.30, with a fluctuation of nearly 9%. Many discussions on X and Reddit focus on the fact that it has met the financial thresholds for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with the market anticipating passive capital inflows from its inclusion.

What’s more interesting is the options market. The latest data shows that MSTR's 30-day implied volatility is only 53%, sitting at the 6th percentile for the year, but the total daily trading volume exceeds 610,000 contracts, far above the average, indicating unusually high trading activity. Especially for the 380 Call expiring in mid-July, the open interest alone reaches as high as 34,000 contracts, accounting for more than half of the total Call value, while the IV has not been significantly pushed up, suggesting that large funds seem to be betting on short-term potential bullishness rather than merely playing volatility.

From the Put/Call ratio perspective, the open interest (OI) remains at 0.9, while the short-term trading volume ratio has dropped to 0.37, reflecting an overall bullish sentiment, but hedging demand still exists. The core variables behind this remain the Bitcoin spot ETF, Q2 earnings reports, and adjustments in the S&P 500. If these three catalysts continue to develop, the $380–400 range may become a new fluctuation zone; conversely, if BTC does not make significant upward movement, the unwinding of high-leverage bullish positions may amplify the downside.

Low volatility with high positions, turbulent undercurrents. What do you think about this "event-driven ticket"? Leave a comment with your thoughts and follow for updates on subsequent changes. Risks are borne by yourself, and discussions do not constitute investment advice.

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