LTC under $90: Buying opportunity or warning sign?

Litecoin (LTC) has fallen below $90 and while the price action seems weak, some fundamental and on-chain indicators suggest that the trend may soon turn favorable for the bulls.

The shift to an upward trend from the Delta volume indicator accumulated spot (CVD) 90 days, measuring the balance between buying and selling pressure in the market. After remaining negative and sometimes neutral since December 2024, the spot CVD turned positive on Saturday.

This change signals the return of the "buyer-dominant" phase, indicating that market participants are stepping in to buy LTC at the current price.

CVD chart of LTC spot – 90 days | Source: CryptoQuantPositive sentiment around the potential LTC ETF fund could drive the price increase.

Bloomberg's ETF analysts believe there is a 95% chance that the LTC ETF, along with the SOL and XRP funds, could be approved by the SEC on October 2. The approval would be a historic milestone for altcoin, potentially attracting institutional investors and increasing exposure from retail investors.

However, seasonality may cause a fall in short-term expectations. Data shows that August and September are typically the weakest months for LTC, recording an average negative return of 6.99% and 5.06% since 2012. However, Q4 will be a time of significant change, with November being the best-performing month for LTC with an average return of 94.79%.

Seasonal chart of LTC | Source: XIf approved, the ETF decision coincides with the seasonal change in LTC's performance, setting the stage for a potential price increase. Combined with the ongoing changes in on-chain buyer behavior, the current price may not be a warning sign but rather a strategic accumulation zone.

The daily chart of LTC reflects the setup for 2024

The current price structure of LTC is reflecting its trajectory for 2024. After a strong price increase in Q1, LTC has entered a correction phase and remains constrained below the downtrend line throughout Q2.

The price has revisited the daily support zone (orange), which previously served as a foundation for a strong breakout in Q4/2024.

The stable accumulation in this demand zone could trigger another growth phase. By the end of Q3 last year, this altcoin had broken above the downtrend line and reclaimed the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a crucial confirmation of strength. This led to a sustained price increase to new highs for the year in Q4/2024.

LTC Price Chart – 1 Day | Source: TradingViewA breakout on the trendline and surpassing moving averages will provide strong technical confirmation, igniting the potential for continued price increase toward Q4/2025.

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