The passage of the U.S. "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" and its accompanying policies (such as the "GENIUS Act") has impacted the crypto assets market, particularly the BTC and ETH contracts, in the following ways:

1. Stablecoins and liquidity impact on U.S. Treasury bonds binding and liquidity tightening.
The bill requires stablecoin issuers to hold US Treasury bonds or highly liquid assets in a 1:1 ratio, prohibits algorithmic stablecoins, and establishes a dual-track regulatory framework at both the federal and state levels. This may lead to a contraction in the liquidity of the stablecoin market, especially as the reserves of leading stablecoins such as USDT and USDC are locked in US Treasury bonds, reducing their circulation in the crypto market. Stablecoins are the core medium for crypto contract trading, and a decline in liquidity could increase trading costs, affecting the activity level of the contract market. Expectations for the expansion of stablecoin market value.
The U.S. Treasury Department predicts that by 2028, the global stablecoin market value will reach $2 trillion, with $1.6 trillion flowing into the U.S. Treasury bond market. If the scale of stablecoins expands, the stability of their reserve assets may be enhanced, but in the long term, excessive reliance on U.S. Treasury bonds may weaken the risk resistance capability of stablecoins, indirectly affecting the volatility of the contract market.
2. Tax policies and market sentiment: The absence of the crypto tax amendment.
Despite Senator Cynthia Lummis's proposal for a tax exemption on small crypto asset transactions and the elimination of double taxation on staking and mining, the amendment was ultimately not included in the bill. This outcome has raised concerns in the market about an increased tax burden on crypto assets, which may lead investors to sell off risk assets (including contract positions), exacerbating BTC and ETH price volatility in the short term. Demand for safe-haven assets and inflation hedging.
After the bill is passed, the U.S. fiscal deficit is expected to increase (with a projected increase of $3.3 trillion in the deficit from 2025 to 2034), combined with inflationary pressures caused by tariff policies, which may drive funds towards safe-haven assets such as Bitcoin. ETH, due to its smart contract ecosystem advantages (such as DeFi and NFTs) and on-chain application demand, may secure a place in institutional asset allocation.
3. Strengthening Regulatory Framework and Market Structure for Stablecoin Regulation
The "GENIUS Act" mandates that stablecoins be tied to U.S. Treasury bonds, which may accelerate industry centralization (Tether and Circle already hold over 70% market share) and weaken the competitive advantage of decentralized finance (DeFi). In the futures market, the dominance of centralized exchanges (CEX) may further solidify, while the liquidity of decentralized exchanges (DEX) may be restricted. Cross-border payments and U.S. dollar hegemony.
The bill establishes a closed loop of "USD → stablecoin → return of US Treasury bonds," strengthening the dominant position of the USD in the on-chain payment system. This may suppress the cross-border flow of non-USD stablecoins and crypto assets, affecting the application prospects of tokens like ETH that support multi-chain ecosystems in international settlements. 4. Market Reaction and Short-term Volatility The price fluctuations and risks of liquidation.
After the bill was passed, the crypto market saw over 100,000 people get liquidated, with BTC and ETH experiencing short-term declines (for example, Bitcoin fell by 1.5% within 24 hours, and Ethereum dropped by 3%). The leveraged positions in the futures market were liquidated due to policy uncertainty, highlighting the fragility of market sentiment.
Institutional funds and long-term expectations
Despite short-term pressure, some institutions remain optimistic about the long-term potential of crypto assets. For example, institutions like Grayscale continue to increase their holdings of BTC, while ETH may attract institutional funding attention due to the progress of smart contract upgrades (such as Pectra) and AI applications (such as Worldcoin).