2025 Crypto Market Outlook: Four Major Scenarios and Eleven Predictions

Since the beginning of 2024, the crypto market has experienced significant growth. After the approval of the Bitcoin ETF on January 10, the price of Bitcoin has soared, driving the altcoin market. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating around $90,000.

It is worth noting that altcoin markets often start when Bitcoin reaches a peak. The first wave was Bitcoin's unsuccessful attempt to hit $69,000, and the next wave is the attempt to reach $100,000.

The next round of altcoin trends is expected to occur in the first quarter of 2025, at which point Bitcoin is likely to stabilize at $100,000. However, before that, a situation similar to the second and third quarters of 2024 may reappear. Here are four possible scenarios:

1. Bitcoin and altcoins are rising generally with a probability of 30-40% (
2. Bitcoin is rising, some altcoins are rising with a probability of 50-60% ).
3. Bitcoin rises, altcoins generally fall with a probability of 20-30% (
4. Bitcoin is down, altcoins are generally down with a probability of 10-20% ).

Due to the improving macro environment, the breakthrough of new historical highs for Bitcoin may not take as long as it did in 2024. The new regime has brought renewed attention to the digital asset space, and the perception of Bitcoin has also changed. This policy shift is very important, and it is expected that Bitcoin will continue to maintain good momentum in 2025.

The situation is similar but slightly different for altcoins. Although the overall outlook for 2025 is positive, the market may take some time to get started. During periods lacking catalysts, altcoins may still experience significant declines. As long as the bull market cycle has not ended, both Bitcoin and altcoins should remain optimistic.

It is unlikely that 2025 will replicate the downturn of the summer of 2024, but a similar stable period as the current one may occur. On-chain projects may see a decline of up to 70% during market downturns. However, altcoins and Bitcoin may not have reached their peak yet.

Conclusion:

• Bitcoin is expected to continue rising, with a growth rate likely to exceed that of 2024.
• Altcoins are generally rising, but a pullback may occur, with a smaller magnitude than in 2024.

Risk Factors

1. Cycle Top Currently, we are still far from the cycle top, but continuous evaluation is needed. The cycle top is not a specific event, but rather a range that is gradually approaching.

2. Bitcoin Reserve Program Risks If the new president completely ignores the reserve plan, it will be bearish. A more likely scenario is that the reserve plan will be postponed.

3. Supply Risk The risk of a large number of Bitcoin holders selling off always exists and needs to be closely monitored.

4. Macroeconomic Risks The expected rate cut will be small. As long as interest rates continue to decline, liquidity will improve. Unless there is a rate hike or no rate cut, the macro environment should be favorable for digital assets.

Token Recommendations

1. AI-related: ALCH, Griffain, Digimon, Ai16z, etc.
2. DeFi: AAVE, ENA, Morpho, Euler, USUAL
3. L1 Public Chain: SUI, Hype, Abstract
4. NFT and game tokens: Pengu, Anime, Spellborne, Treeverse, etc.
5. Other topics: data tokens, Meme coins, DePIN, Ordinals, traditional DeFi, etc.

11 Predictions for 2025

1. A certain company will implement the DePIN project through acquisition.
2. A certain trading platform will lose its position as the largest exchange.
3. Metaverse tokens gain new life with the progress of VR
4. ICOs are back in vogue
5. There will be no altcoin market on the Ethereum chain
6. SUI reaches double digits ( at least 10 dollars )
7. Ethereum ETF staking approved, leading to more staking yield products
8. A famous artist uses NFTs and token rewards to thank fans
9. Bitcoin reaches $200,000
10. More L1 project founders have resigned
11. Base loses in competition with L1, Solana maintains its advantage.