The Telegram mini-program ecosystem faces severe challenges, with user activity continuing to decline.

Recently, the Telegram mini-program ecosystem has shown a significant downward trend. Once, due to the explosive growth of click-based games, Telegram mini-programs became the focus of the blockchain field. However, behind this prosperity lies a hidden crisis.

The TON Foundation has overly relied on click games in its support strategy. While this has resulted in a surge of users and data in the short term, it has also sown the seeds of ecological imbalance. As users' freshness wears off, the issues of homogeneity and lack of depth in click games gradually emerge, causing the entire ecosystem to begin to suffer backlash.

Now, as the tide recedes, it is necessary to deeply reflect on the strategic mistakes of the TON Foundation and to find a new direction that can lead the next phase of the TON ecosystem.

1. The sharp decline trend of monthly active users is hard to stop

Over the past month, monitoring of 820 Telegram projects showed that from October 1 to October 31, the accumulated monthly active users (MAU) reached 879,922,503. However, during this month, the total MAU decreased by 295,971,112, equivalent to a drop of 33%.

This significant decline reveals a rapid decrease in user activity, reflecting that the entire ecosystem is experiencing unprecedented challenges.

Through the analysis of daily data, it has been found that this decline shows a trend of amplification. In particular, large projects with more than 5 million users experienced a relatively slow initial decline in MAU, but over time, the rate of decline began to accelerate, even leading to a more pronounced drop in the later stages, which had a more profound impact on the overall decline of MAU.

This phenomenon indicates that even large-scale top projects struggle to withstand the impact of user loss, revealing deep-rooted problems within the ecosystem that urgently need to be addressed.

2. Structural Changes Behind Project Price Fluctuations

Among the 820 monitored projects, 249 projects showed an increase in October, while 491 projects experienced a decline. The leading and historically established projects saw the most significant drop. These once-glorious star projects are now facing a substantial decrease in user activity and participation, reflecting a weakening of their growth momentum and a waning of user novelty.

At the same time, some emerging projects have provided positive growth, injecting new vitality into the market. However, in terms of quantity and growth rate, the increase of these new projects is far from compensating for the impact caused by the decline of older projects. Among projects with a user base of less than 1 million, the number of declining projects still exceeds the number of rising projects.

This phenomenon highlights the structural problems existing in the TON ecosystem: the appeal of old projects is gradually weakening, the growth momentum of new projects is insufficient, and the entire ecosystem urgently needs new stimulation and direction. How to provide more innovative and valuable applications while maintaining user stickiness has become an urgent topic for the foundation and developers.

3. Migration of Project Scale and Degradation of User Demand

By observing the changes of these projects in October, some noteworthy trends have been identified:

High-value projects flowing to lower tiers

The number of projects with over 50 million users has decreased from 2 to 1, indicating a significant decline in user activity for these flagship projects. This trend has led to a reduction in the number of high-tier projects and an increase in mid-tier projects, reflecting that the ecosystem is undergoing a top-down contraction.

The level of medium-sized projects has significantly decreased.

Medium-sized projects have also not been spared from the impact of declining activity. The increase in the number of projects is mainly due to the downgrading of high-tier projects, rather than their own growth. This indicates that medium-sized projects are facing increasing pressure to maintain their user base, with a noticeable phenomenon of user attrition.

The number of small projects has increased significantly.

The increase in the number of small projects is not a sign of ecological prosperity, but rather a result of the overall decline of projects. Projects at all levels are generally facing the issue of declining user activity, and the influx of new projects is insufficient to make up for user loss, leading to a lack of fresh blood in the ecosystem.

These data clearly reveal a comprehensive downward trend in the scale of the TON ecosystem projects. From top-tier projects to small-scale ones, none have been able to avoid the impact of declining activity. This trend reflects a current lack of user stickiness in the ecosystem and a deficiency in innovative driving forces, urgently requiring new strategies and narratives to stimulate growth and regain user trust.

4. The Dilemmas and Highlights of the OpenLeague Project

Although OpenLeague has some recognition and user base in the market, it still cannot avoid the trend of user decline, and in some aspects, the decline has been even more severe. In addition, the project has a mix of quality, with varying degrees of standards.

However, it is worth noting that there are still a few standout projects that have emerged, bringing hope to the entire ecosystem. For example, "AKEDO Game" and "RentTycoon" have shown good growth trends on certain days.

5. Project User Dynamics Analysis

In order to gain a deeper understanding of the user dynamics of the project, we conducted a study on the project changes from one week 30 days ago (September 24 - September 30) and the most recent week (October 25 - October 31). The analysis results show:

• User growth projects are worth focusing on, as these projects demonstrate the potential for sustained growth or rebound.
• Users need to analyze the reasons for the project's decline in depth and adjust strategies in a timely manner to regain users.
• Projects suspected of data anomalies need to strengthen monitoring to ensure the authenticity of the data and maintain the healthy development of the ecosystem.

6. Summary

Currently, Telegram mini-program applications are facing unprecedented difficulties, mainly focused on commercialization and content.

Commercialization Aspect: The current commercialization model mainly relies on traffic monetization, but new traffic has insufficient appeal for exchanges that have already attracted a wave of traffic. At the same time, the large number of tokens generated in games lack specific application scenarios and consumption mechanisms, leading to the only choice for players after acquiring tokens being to sell them, which causes the project to rapidly decline after listing.

Content aspect: Most leading games are primarily focused on clickers and fission tasks, lacking playability. Over time, users have developed a fixed stereotype about Telegram games, attracting mostly "earn and sell" type players. To reverse this situation, it is necessary to create truly playable games and rebuild user trust.

We look forward to seeing new content creativity and commercialization models that will revitalize these games and lead users into a true gaming world. Just as "In the mountains heavy with water, one doubts there is no way, yet in the dark willows and bright flowers, there is another village," we hope to see the prosperous scene of the Telegram application soon.