The U.S. government's Bitcoin Holdings flippening! Arkham clarifies that it still holds 198,000 BTC (24 billion USD), and the selling panic was a false alarm.

In response to the recent rumors that "the U.S. government has sold 85% of its Bitcoin reserves," blockchain analysis firm Arkham Intelligence released an authoritative clarification: multiple U.S. law enforcement agencies (FBI/DOJ/DEA, etc.) collectively hold at least 198,000 BTC, valued at $24 billion at current prices, and there have been no transfers in the past four months. This figure far exceeds that of the British government ($7 billion) and Bhutan ($1.3 billion), but the large holdings have raised market concerns about potential selling pressure. This clarification comes just before the final report of Trump's encryption task force, which will be released on July 30, and the report may explore the feasibility of establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve using seized assets.

Decoding Holdings Fog: Misjudgment Caused by Cross-Departmental Asset Diversification

A week ago, market rumors sparked turmoil, claiming that the US Marshall only holds 28,988 BTC (approximately $3.47 billion), suggesting that the government has sold off 85% of its Bitcoin reserves. This news triggered a strong reaction from the political arena, with Senator Cynthia Lummis calling it a "strategic blunder."

Arkham's latest report reveals the root cause of the misjudgment:

• Cross-Department Holdings Not Consolidated: Except for the Police Department, the FBI, Department of Justice (DOJ), Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), and the Federal Prosecutor's Office all hold seized Bitcoin.
• 198,000 BTC distributed across multiple addresses: Total scale reaches 24 billion USD, accounting for about 1% of the current circulation.
• Four months with no activity: All related addresses have not conducted any transfers since March 2025.

Market Impact: Concerns about dumping shift from "has occurred" to "potential risk"

Although this clarification alleviates the immediate panic of a "government large-scale dumping", it raises new concerns:

• Liquidity Shock Risk: 198,000 BTC is equivalent to several times the global daily trading volume, any planned dumping will trigger a huge shock.
• Previously, it was mistakenly reported that during the dumping, Bitcoin price showed resilience and did not collapse, indicating market absorption capacity.
• After the real Holdings exposure, the expectation of "government dumping" turns into a long-term sword of Damocles, which may suppress the willingness of institutions to chase higher prices.

Policy Outlook: Trump's Encryption Working Group Report May Set the Reserve Strategy

The 180-day report from Trump's encryption task force to be released on July 30 will be a key window for alleviating concerns. Experts predict the report will focus on:

1. Feasibility of Bitcoin Strategic Reserves: Discussing the conversion of existing seized assets into national reserves.
2. No use of taxpayer funds: Follow community demands, avoid purchasing on the open market.
3. Regulatory Framework Implementation: Clarification of stablecoin regulation and token classification rules under the "GENIUS Act" and "CLARITY Act".

Monica Jasuja, the Chief Innovation Officer of the Asian Emerging Payments Association, pointed out: "The focus is not on buying coins in the private market, but on assessing the path to establishing a federal reserve using the government's existing encryption assets."

Global Government Coin Holding Pattern: The United States Absolutely Dominates

• U.S. Government: $24 billion (198,000 BTC)
• UK Government: 7 billion ( approximately 59,322 BTC )
• Bhutan Government: 1.3 billion dollars ( approximately 11,017 BTC)

Conclusion: Arkham's clarification has temporarily eased the panic from the dumping, but the existence of the $24 billion "time bomb" will continue to affect market psychology. The short-term focus shifts to the Trump task force report on July 30. If it suggests incorporating seized Bitcoin into the national strategic reserve, it will significantly alleviate liquidity concerns and may even turn into a long-term positive. Investors need to closely monitor two risk variables: 1) whether the asset disposal authority of law enforcement agencies is centralized; 2) policy continuity after the election. Historical experience shows that government-held coins are more likely to be released through over-the-counter bulk transactions or regular auctions, which has a relatively controllable impact on the secondary market. However, increased transparency in holdings will enhance the sensitivity of price and policy linkage.