Is a Bitcoin rebound imminent? On-chain data and the inverse head and shoulders pattern point to a $144,000 target.

The market share of mainstream CEX Spot trading volume has significantly surged recently, jumping from around 40% on July 15 to 60% on July 18, and maintaining a high level of 58% on July 23. Historical data shows that a surge in mainstream CEX Spot share is often a precursor to a rise in Bitcoin prices. Analysts point out that this change reinforces the key support level of BTC at $117,000, with prices remaining stable at this level. Meanwhile, on-chain data indicates that Bitcoin has shown resilience near the realization price of $118,300 for short-term holders (1 day to 1 week), suggesting that new entrants are not panic selling. The technical outlook presents a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern, targeting $144,000. CryptoQuant analyst Chairman Lee also maintains the prediction that BTC will reach $180,000 by the end of 2025, while the on-chain indicator IFP shows that large holders are reluctant to sell, but exchange reserves have risen to a high point since June 25, creating short-term concerns.

Mainstream CEX Spot Share Soars: Bullish Signal Predicted by History The market share of spot trading volume on mainstream CEXs has seen a significant leap recently:

• July 15: About 40%
• July 18: Soared to 60%
• July 23: Maintained at a high of 58% ( according to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha data ) Historical experience shows that the sharp increase in market share of mainstream CEX spot trading often indicates that the price of Bitcoin is about to start the upward trend.

$117,000 support level boosted by mainstream CEX liquidity On July 18, when the share of mainstream CEX soared to 60%, the price of Bitcoin successfully maintained above the key $117,000 level on the daily chart. Since then, this price level has been repeatedly validated as a reliable support area. Analysts believe this is due to the deep liquidity pool of CEX and high execution reliability, providing a solid foundation for the price. The stability of the current price at this level has been repeatedly confirmed since the initial breakout.

On-chain support: Short-term holder cost line provides resilience The Bitcoin price has recently shown strong support around $118,300, which is close to the realized price of the 1-day to 1-week UTXO (unspent transaction output) age band.

• UTXO Age Band Analysis: This metric classifies holdings based on the time that Bitcoin has remained unspent in the wallet (holding duration), revealing investor behavior patterns.
  • Short term (1 day - 1 week): Typically reflects the activities of new entrants or speculative holders.
  • Long-term (6 months - 5 years): Usually associated with long-term holders with stronger conviction. Taha explained:

"Historically, the realized price of the short-term age band has acted as a dynamic support level. This indicates that new holders have not surrendered (not panic selling), and the market respects the recent buyers' average on-chain cost basis (i.e., $118,300)."

Technical Pattern: Inverse Head and Shoulders Target Points to $144,000 Cryptocurrency analyst Titan of Crypto pointed out on the X platform that the Bitcoin weekly chart is following a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. The chart he shared shows that if the pattern is confirmed, BTC is expected to rise to a target of $144,000.

Year-end target $180,000? Large holders are reluctant to sell, providing support Bitcoin's recent historical high of $123,218 ( ATH ) has reignited the market's expectations for higher price targets. CryptoQuant analyst Chairman Lee maintains his prediction: BTC is expected to reach $180,000 by the end of 2025. On-chain indicators supporting this optimistic outlook include:

• Bitcoin IFP (Large Holder Position) Indicator: Shows that even as the price approaches historical highs, large holders (whales) continue to hold BTC without a large-scale transfer to exchanges. This is different from previous cycles — in the past, an increase in inflows to exchanges when approaching highs typically indicated a significant pullback.

Potential Risk: Concerns Arise Over Rising Exchange Reserves However, not all signals point to a rise:

• Exchange Reserves Increase: Recently, the exchange reserves of Bitcoin have risen to the highest level since June 25, raising market concerns about potential dumping pressure. An increase in reserves usually means there are more tokens available for sale.

Market Overview As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is at $119,097, with a rise of 0.6% in the past 24 hours.

Conclusion: Multiple signals intertwine, risk warnings under bullish inclination The surge in the market share of mainstream CEX spot trading, the solid key support level of $117,000, the resilience of the short-term holder cost line, and the bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern collectively paint a potential rebound roadmap for Bitcoin, with a short-term target of $144,000 and a long-term vision of $180,000. The reluctance of on-chain whales to sell (IFP indicator) further enhances long-term confidence. However, the significant increase in exchange reserves is like a shadow, indicating that the short-term dumping risk remains. Investors need to closely monitor the defensive strength of the $117,000-$118,300 support area, the trend of exchange reserve changes, and the final confirmation of the inverse head and shoulders pattern, staying vigilant for risk signals amidst optimism.