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The stock market cycles often follow certain patterns. Typically, the first phase of a bull run shows an overall upward trend, followed by a horizontal consolidation period lasting about six months. At the beginning of the second phase of the bull run, the market again experiences a general rise, but then it shifts to a significant structural market.
At this stage, certain specific sectors or themes exhibit strong upward momentum, continuously attracting funds, while other sectors may lose liquidity support as a result. It is worth noting that the main upward wave of a bull run typically occurs in the mid to late stages of the second phase. Due to the structural characteristics of the market, the sectors that are continuously favored may create astonishing gains.
Historically, the first phase of a bull run is often accompanied by a decline in the bond market. During the transitional period between the two phases, the bond market may experience a rebound. It is not until the early stage of the second phase, when a general rise occurs, that the bond market may truly peak and decline.
Looking back at the recent market performance, we can speculate that the initial broad rise of the second phase of the bull run may be nearing its end, and the market is about to enter a structural market phase. In this phase, the effectiveness of sector rotation strategies may decrease, replaced by certain specific sectors continually attracting capital favor.
Looking to the future, which sector will become the market focus? Based on current policy direction and economic development trends, the "anti-involution" theme may become an important investment logic. This concept has gradually become an important part of the national strategy and is worth continuous attention from investors.
Regardless of how the market evolves, maintaining rationality and controlling risks are always key to investing. While seizing market opportunities, investors should also carefully assess various risk factors and develop investment strategies that suit themselves.