Technical Analysis using the Matrix Method (2025/8/8) has indeed broken down; is the adjustment over? 【Rakuten Wallet】 | CoinDesk JAPAN

This paper evaluates the Bitcoin market using six representative types of Technical Analysis: ① Pattern Analysis ② Moving Averages (9MA, 25MA) ③ Ichimoku Cloud ④ Bollinger Bands ⑤ MACD ⑥ RSI, scoring them on a five-point scale (5 to 1: Strong to Weak) and assessing the overall strength of the market based on the average. I believe that fixed-point observation and objectivity are important in Technical Analysis. By combining multiple representative analysis methods, the aim is to eliminate subjectivity and enhance accuracy.

Summary

The overall rating is 3.0.

Last time, I mentioned that there were mixed signals indicating "a sign suggesting sideways movement and a sign of MACD and RSI showing a downward divergence," saying it could be either "sideways movement or if it breaks, it will be downward."

As a result, it first reflected the divergence and broke down, but then it formed a double bottom and reversed. It broke down but continued to move sideways.

There is still no room for optimism, but for now, it seems that we have managed the downward adjustment, and the next move will be upward, although it looks like it will still take some time.

Note that we are using the BTCJPY chart from the Rakuten Wallet margin trading exchange here. Please refer to the BTCUSD chart here (the link leads to the TradingView site).

Pattern Analysis

〈Daily Chart〉〈4-Hour Chart〉Initially broke below the range, but was supported at 16.65 million yen, which is the half retracement of the rise from 15.15 million yen on July 2 to 18.15 million yen on the 14th, and was capped at the half retracement level of 17.40 million yen.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the support that had been the lower limit of the previous range at 17 million yen has become resistance, but after forming a double bottom, it rebounded and returned to the original range. The immediate target aligns closely with the previous resistance at around 17.45 million yen, which is a doubling.

In other words, it feels like a bottom has been reached, but the 17,400,000 to 17,450,000 yen range lies as a strong resistance. Whether it can break through here is the key, but it is still uncertain what will happen. However, the shape of the ascending flag is being maintained, and ultimately it seems likely to break upwards.

Rating: 4

Moving Average

The range has broken down with a dead cross. At this stage, it is unclear whether the decline has ended or if there will be another drop.

Rating: 3

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

Three roles of good reversal. The key point is whether it will be supported at the lower limit of the cloud, which is expected to rise to around 17.2 million yen in the latter half of next week.

Rating: 3

Bollinger Bands

An expansion has occurred with a downward trend, but it seems to be slightly squeezing.

Rating: 2

MACD

Divergence has been received and lost momentum. It seems that the divergence has not completely resolved, and it also appears to be heading towards a golden cross.

Rating: 3

RSI

The divergence here has been resolved. No directional sense at 50.

Rating: 3

Rating

*This article is a reprint of the technical report of "Rakuten Wallet". *This article provides information for reference in investment decisions, but it is not intended for recommending specific securities or soliciting investment activities. Additionally, Rakuten Wallet does not engage in investment solicitation or make definitive predictions. *The information provided may contain future projections, but these are the personal opinions of the sender and do not guarantee accuracy or reliability. We kindly ask that you make your own final investment decisions.

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