Harris's approval rating rises: potential impact on the crypto market after election

Recently, the Democratic Party in the United States held an online town hall meeting aimed at garnering support from cryptocurrency holders. However, the anticipated attendance of Vice President Kamala Harris was once again absent, raising many questions.

Nonetheless, the possibility of Harris becoming the next President of the United States is still on the rise. According to data from a prediction market, after the announcement of the event, Harris's chances of winning equaled Trump's for the first time, and then rose to 53%, while Trump stood at 44%.

At the same time, the price of the Harris concept token $KAMA is also on the rise. As of now, the price of $KAMA has reached $0.0131, an increase of nearly 47% since the beginning of August. In contrast, the Trump concept coin $TRUMP has dropped more than 60% from its peak a month ago.

Before Biden clearly stated his intention to withdraw from the race, Harris as his running mate did not attract much attention. Trump initially did not regard this competitor highly and publicly emphasized that Harris is very opposed to encryption. However, now the situation seems to have changed, as support for Harris is steadily growing in both the traditional market and the crypto market.

So, will Harris really be elected? If she becomes the President of the United States, what kind of impact will it have on the crypto market? And how can Trump turn the situation around?

Indifferent Attitude

Unlike Trump's hostile attitude towards cryptocurrency during his presidency, Harris seems to maintain a indifferent and conservative stance towards this emerging field. She has never given enough attention to cryptocurrency, and is even perceived by the outside world as "not very interested."

First of all, Harris, as the Vice President of the United States, mainly focuses on more traditional macro areas, such as economic recovery, COVID-19 response, environmental issues, and racial equality. From her financial disclosures, it appears that Harris and her husband prefer to invest in stable, traditional assets, such as U.S. Treasury bonds and emerging market stocks. This investment portfolio demonstrates Harris's particular caution in selecting emerging technologies and financial instruments. She seems to prefer to maintain a certain distance from high-risk encryption currencies.

Secondly, although Harris has served as a senator and state attorney general in California and has had contact with tech giants in Silicon Valley, this has not translated into her public support or involvement in encryption currencies. Even as encryption currencies gain increasing attention in Silicon Valley and the broader tech industry, Harris did not express clear views on encryption currency policy during her time in public office, nor did she actively participate in related legislative or regulatory discussions in Congress or other public forums. This silence further indicates her cautious attitude in this field.

Furthermore, even during her tenure as Vice President, Harris's position on cryptocurrency issues has not shown any significant changes. She has neither participated in nor promoted any major crypto market-related policies, nor has she issued any official statements supporting or opposing encryption. In stark contrast to her active involvement in areas such as the environment, education, and healthcare, Harris's "absence" in the crypto market is particularly notable.

Overall, before the "official" campaign for the next U.S. president, Harris's attitude towards encryption can be described as quite "indifferent," perhaps stemming from her caution regarding the risks and uncertainties in this field. Despite a certain connection to the tech industry, her investment and policy choices clearly lean more towards safety and stability. Compared to the businessman-turned-risk-taker Trump, Harris undoubtedly appears more conservative.

"False Transformation"

To win the election, Harris seems to be making some changes. Her campaign team recently recruited two consultants with cryptocurrency backgrounds: David Plouffe and Gene Sperling. Plouffe was the campaign manager and senior advisor for former U.S. President Obama, and after leaving the White House in 2013, he became actively involved in the encryption sector, serving as a global strategic advisor for a trading platform's global advisory board and a payment company. The other new member of Harris's team, Sperling, has served on the board of a crypto company and has held important economic advisory roles in the Clinton and Obama administrations.

These actions may superficially appear to show Harris's emphasis on cryptocurrency, as she is working to establish connections with the crypto industry. The addition of two advisors may also provide her with some support and assistance in winning the election and formulating cryptocurrency policies. However, do these "superficial efforts" truly reflect a change in her attitude? The answer seems to be negative.

Previously, there were rumors that Harris would attend the Bitcoin conference held at the end of July and speak. It is well known that Trump, even after being shot, announced loudly that he would participate in this conference, and indeed expressed at the meeting that he would formulate a series of encryption-friendly policies. The crypto market was very much looking forward to how the two candidates would debate at the conference. However, the outcome was disappointing, as sources quickly confirmed that Harris would not attend, and in the end, she indeed did not attend.

Of course, considering that Harris was just nominated as a presidential candidate and is busy with affairs, it may be understandable that she did not attend the conference. However, her subsequent absence from a virtual roundtable organized by California Democratic Congress members raised widespread doubts in the crypto industry. During the meeting, executives from several well-known crypto companies engaged in dialogue with Democratic officials. As a representative of the Democratic Party, Harris should have attended the meeting. Therefore, a co-founder of a certain exchange publicly questioned the reason for Harris's absence from the meeting on social media to express his dissatisfaction.

Perhaps influenced by these factors, the dialogue between crypto representatives and Democratic representatives at the roundtable was not smooth. Industry executives failed to reach a consensus with the Democrats and instead criticized government officials harshly. Major donors and others expressed strong dissatisfaction with the government's hollow promises. This tension highlights the divergence in policy positions between the crypto industry and the Democratic government, and further deepens the crypto industry's skepticism towards Harris: Does she really value cryptocurrency?

Strict policies may continue

Today, Harris has once again been absent from important events regarding encryption, which has disappointed everyone greatly. However, her approval rating continues to rise steadily. As a member of the crypto industry, we must consider: if Harris wins the election, what impact will this have on the crypto market?

The Biden administration has implemented stricter regulations and tax transparency measures in the crypto market. While these measures have reduced market uncertainty to some extent, they have also raised concerns and opposition within the encryption community. As a Democratic candidate, Harris may find it difficult to break this established framework in terms of policy.

The chief investment officer of a certain investment company pointed out that although Trump's election may be more favorable for the crypto market, Harris's victory would not be as bad as some people are worried about. He also mentioned that heavyweight figures within the Democratic Party have recently supported some bills favorable to encryption, indicating that the attitude towards encryption within the Democratic Party is changing.

However, are these changes enough? A research institute's research director pointed out on social media that Harris's choice of two officials who oppose encryption in the Biden administration to join her team may perpetuate Biden's hostile policies.

It is important to note that Trump has clearly proposed using Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and is even considering using Bitcoin to address the U.S. dollar debt issue. These bold statements are currently unmatched by the Democratic Party. Given Harris's past actions and the long-standing harsh policies of the Democratic Party, it is hard to believe she would propose lenient policies. Therefore, there are deep concerns about the performance of the crypto market in the future under Harris's presidency.

Trump: The market favors it

As mentioned earlier, Trump's advantage lies in his consistently encryption-friendly stance. From launching multiple series of NFTs, to hosting dinners for NFT holders, to bravely attending the Bitcoin conference at the risk of his life, compared to Biden who hurriedly launched his own meme to win the favor of the crypto community while lagging significantly behind, and Harris's seemingly glamorous moves of hiring a crypto team and holding meetings, Trump's performance is undoubtedly more "genuine".

From the perspective of the crypto market, whether it is the relatively loose policies during Trump’s presidency or the recent surge of memes related to Trump, the crypto market clearly leans towards him.

In addition, Trump recently held an online event with leading figures in the encryption space on social media. Although the entire conversation did not mention Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies, Trump's proactive engagement has undoubtedly increased his favorability within the crypto community. This positive move suggests that Trump seems to be trying to solidify his support in the encryption community and demonstrate an interest and open attitude towards the field.

Although we can criticize that his initiatives and statements may just be "empty promises" to win votes, compared to the long-standing harsh policies of the Democratic Party, the crypto market is clearly more willing to accept Trump's "big promises". After all, every time a political event related to Trump emerges, it brings a considerable rise to the cryptocurrency market. In the face of visible benefits, perhaps we don't need to overly anticipate the unattainable and elusive Harris policy.

Conclusion

Overall, Harris's attitude towards cryptocurrency seems to be still in exploration. Although she has recently taken some measures to try to get closer to the crypto community, her actions and statements seem to always contradict each other, and her position remains unclear. Personally, it is difficult to have enough confidence in Harris at this stage compared to Trump. For the crypto market, whether Harris's leadership can truly bring positive outcomes still needs time to verify. As the election battle progresses, it might be worth continuing to pay attention to her movements in this field, as clearer signals may emerge.