Review of the crypto market in the first half of 2025 and outlook for the second half

I. Summary

In the first half of 2025, the global macro environment is highly uncertain. The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate cuts multiple times, reflecting that monetary policy has entered a wait-and-see phase. At the same time, escalating geopolitical conflicts further tear apart the structure of global risk appetite. This report analyzes the opportunities and risks in the crypto market for the second half of the year from five macro dimensions, combining on-chain data and financial models, and proposes three core strategic recommendations.

2. Review of the Global Macro Environment

The first half of 2025 continues to exhibit multiple characteristics of uncertainty. The dominant logic of macroeconomics and monetary policy is gradually evolving from "inflation control" to "signal games" and "expectation management". The crypto market, as a forerunner of global liquidity changes, also displays typical synchronous fluctuations.

The Federal Reserve chose to "pause interest rate cuts" again at the June meeting and lowered its expectations for the number of rate cuts for the year. Monetary policy is shifting from "directional" guidance to "timing" management, significantly increasing uncertainty about the policy path.

At the same time, the "split intensifies" between fiscal policy and monetary policy. The Trump administration accelerates the promotion of the "strong dollar + strong borders" strategy, with the Treasury pushing for the legalization of dollar stablecoin compliance, attempting to leverage fintech products to spread dollar assets. These measures are decoupled from the Federal Reserve's direction of "maintaining high interest rates to suppress inflation," making market expectation management more complex.

The ongoing escalation of geopolitical tensions has also had a substantial impact on market sentiment. Events such as Ukraine's destruction of Russian strategic bombers and attacks on Middle Eastern oil infrastructure have triggered a significant inflow of safe-haven funds into gold and short-term U.S. Treasury markets.

3. Reconstruction of the Dollar System and the Evolution of the Role of Cryptocurrencies

Since 2020, the dollar system has been undergoing a profound structural reconstruction. This reconstruction stems from the instability of the global monetary order itself and the crisis of institutional trust.

From an internal structural perspective, the U.S. dollar credit system is facing "the shaking of the logic of monetary policy anchoring." The Trump administration is reshaping it into a "fiscal first" strategy, leveraging the global dominance of the dollar to export domestic inflation.

From external challenges, the multilateral currency mechanism continues to test the dollar system. Countries like China and Russia are accelerating the promotion of "de-dollarization" measures such as local currency settlement and bilateral clearing agreements.

Under this pattern, Bitcoin's role is shifting from "decentralized payment tool" to "sovereignty-resistant inflation asset" and "liquidity channel under institutional gaps." Ethereum, on the other hand, has evolved into an "institutional access platform," and its future direction will depend on its "institutional compatibility."

4. On-chain Data Perspective

In the first half of 2025, on-chain data presents a complex scenario of "structural sedimentation and marginal recovery interwoven:"

1. The proportion of long-term Bitcoin holders has reached a record high, with over 70% of Bitcoin not moved for more than 12 months.

2. The stablecoin market has emerged from the bottom repair cycle, and the market capitalization of USDC is back to growth.

3. The DeFi ecosystem shows a "active repair but risk-neutral" pattern, with increased activity in derivative trading, but a low utilization rate of funds.

These indicators reflect the oscillation of investor sentiment between risk aversion and exploration, as well as the process of capital structure reconstruction that is highly sensitive to policy changes.

V. Market Trend Analysis and Strategy Recommendations for the Second Half of the Year

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the crypto market will enter a critical turning point of macro and structural resonance. The core variables are the dynamic game of multidimensional macro paths, institutional certainty, and on-chain structural reconstruction.

The market is expected to exhibit a volatile upward pattern of "pulse rise - policy suppression - structural rotation." ETF capital inflows, on-chain structural optimization, and a slowdown in thematic rotation will become the main characteristics.

Strategy Suggestions:

1. Bitcoin remains the most certain mainstream asset, suitable for a dual-track layout of ETF and cold wallets.

2. Ethereum has game elasticity and focuses on the segmented sector combining "liquidity + new narratives" within its ecosystem.

3. Strategically capture secondary rotation opportunities in Meme assets, but strictly control positions.

4. Build a "defensive bull market framework" by focusing on the changes in three key indicators: Federal Reserve policy, ETF fund flows, and stablecoin activity.

6. Conclusion

In 2025, the crypto market will enter a new cycle dominated by institutional competition and guided by liquidity reconstruction. It is recommended that investors adopt a core strategy of "finding structural opportunities in defense" to seize the new Alpha paths brought about by the reconstruction of monetary tools and the recovery of capital arbitrage chains. Patience and understanding of the system will become key to navigating the cycle.