The New Normal of the Crypto Market: The Arrival of the Multi-Cycle Parallel Era

Recently, a hot topic widely discussed among industry insiders is that the traditional "four-year cycle" theory is no longer applicable to the current crypto market. If investors still cling to past thinking patterns, hoping to achieve huge profits merely through long-term holding, they are likely to be ruthlessly abandoned by the market.

In fact, the current crypto market has evolved into a complex situation where four different cycles are running simultaneously, each with its own unique rhythm, strategy, and profit logic.

Bitcoin's Extended Cycle: Institution-Led Slow Bull Market

Bitcoin has evolved from a purely speculative asset to an institutional allocation asset. The scale of capital and allocation logic brought by Wall Street, public companies, and ETFs has fundamentally changed the market structure of Bitcoin. We are witnessing a large-scale transfer of retail chips to institutions, and this fundamental change is reshaping the price discovery mechanism and volatility characteristics of Bitcoin.

For retail investors, the biggest challenge is the dual pressure of time cost and opportunity cost. Institutional investors can patiently wait for 3-5 years or even longer to realize the long-term value of Bitcoin, while retail investors clearly find it difficult to endure such a long holding period.

In the future, we may see a Bitcoin slow bull market lasting over ten years. The annualized return might stabilize in the range of 20-30%, but the intraday volatility will significantly decrease, resembling a steadily growing tech stock. As for the price ceiling of Bitcoin, it might be difficult to predict accurately from the perspective of retail investors.

The Short Cycle of MEME Assets: From Grassroots Carnival to Professional Competition

The essence of MEME assets is a speculative vehicle for "instant gratification." It does not require a complex technical background; just a symbol that resonates is enough. From animal themes to political memes, from AI concepts to community IP, MEME has evolved into a complete "emotion monetization" industrial chain.

The "short and fast" characteristics of the MEME market make it a barometer of market sentiment and a reservoir of funds. When funds are abundant, it is the preferred testing ground for hot money; when funds are scarce, it transforms into the last refuge for speculation.

However, the MEME market is evolving from "grassroots carnival" to "professional competition". Ordinary investors are finding it increasingly difficult to profit from this high-frequency rotation. With the participation of professional teams, researchers, and large holders, this once "grassroots paradise" is becoming more and more competitive.

Long Cycles of Technological Innovation: Patiently Waiting for Breakthroughs

Innovations with real technical barriers, such as Layer 2 scaling, ZK technology, and AI infrastructure, typically require a development cycle of 2-3 years or even longer to see practical results. These types of projects follow the technology maturity curve, rather than the emotional cycles of the capital market, and there is an essential time lag between the two.

The value release of a technology project typically exhibits a nonlinear leap characteristic. For investors with patience and technical insight, positioning during the "trough period" of a technology project may be the best strategy for obtaining excess returns. However, this requires investors to endure long waiting periods and market fluctuations.

Short Cycle of Innovation Hotspots: Seizing the 1-3 Month Window

Before the main technological narrative takes shape, the market often experiences rapid rotations of various small hotspots. From the tokenization of physical assets to decentralized physical infrastructure, from AI agents to AI infrastructure, each small hotspot may only have a window period of 1 to 3 months.

The fragmentation and high-frequency rotation of this narrative reflect the dual constraints of current market attention scarcity and the efficiency of capital seeking profit. A typical small narrative cycle usually follows the six-stage pattern of "concept validation → capital testing → opinion expansion → fear of missing out → overvaluation → capital withdrawal."

If one can enter during the "proof of concept" to "fund testing" stage and exit during the peak of "fear of missing out," it is possible to achieve considerable returns. It is worth noting that if the subsequent narrative can continue the previous hot spots, forming a systematic upgrade linkage, and truly precipitate a sustainable value closed loop in this process, it is very likely that a mainstream-level super narrative will emerge.

From the current narrative pattern, it is most likely that breakthroughs will first occur at the level of AI infrastructure. If foundational technologies such as model context protocols, communication standards between AI agents, distributed computing, reasoning, and data networks can be organically integrated, there is indeed potential to build a super narrative similar to "AI summer."

In general, recognizing the essence of these four parallel cycles is essential to finding suitable strategies within their respective rhythms. Clearly, the singular "four-year cycle" mindset is no longer sufficient to adapt to the current complexity of the market. Adapting to the new normal of "multiple parallel cycles" may be the key to truly profiting in this market.