Analysis of the Development Cycle and Project Types in the Blockchain Industry

Emerging industries usually follow a pattern: going through multiple cycles of rises and falls until reaching a peak. This process typically repeats at least three times. Research shows that the rise of things usually goes through three stages: undervaluation, value discovery, and bubble. The blockchain industry is currently in the bubble stage, which is quite similar to the development trajectory of the early internet.

In the early 1980s, few people anticipated that computers and the internet would become necessities of modern life. The mainstream media at the time generally regarded these technologies as mere toys, scoffing at them. Similarly, in the 1990s, Microsoft was underestimated by many, who believed its stock had reached its growth limit. However, these predictions turned out to be wrong, as Microsoft's stock price has increased a hundredfold compared to that time.

As the cornerstone of the blockchain industry, Bitcoin has gone through 11 years. From its initial circulation on the dark web, to later attracting the attention of hackers, to facing regulatory challenges, and even experiencing controversial fork events. The price fluctuations of Bitcoin have always stirred the nerves of investors in the entire cryptocurrency market, especially its astonishing declines that often leave people in shock.

In such a market environment, blockchain projects can be roughly divided into two categories:

First-class projects are usually known for their rapid price increases in a short period. These projects often depict grand but substantively lacking application scenarios. Their white papers are often lengthy but rarely address specific project implementation details, instead focusing heavily on price, promotion, and fund allocation. Such projects often claim to be decentralized, yet in practice, they use centralized methods to attract investors. When projects fail, investors often find it difficult to protect their rights, yet many continue to invest with a sense of luck.

In contrast, another category of projects may perform mediocrely during bear markets. These projects, while occasionally attracting attention, have teams that are more focused on continuous development, with frequent updates to their GitHub repositories. Although the price of the currency may remain stagnant for a long time or even decline slightly, the project still has a group of loyal supporters and team members working tirelessly. Such projects are typically not keen on participating in high-profile summits or conducting large-scale promotions, but instead concentrate their limited resources on core technology development, dedicated to promoting the practical application and implementation of Blockchain technology.

In a bear market, the performance differences between these two types of projects are particularly evident. Some speculative projects use various means to attract investors, while some technology-focused projects continue to work quietly. In the long run, true value is often nurtured during bear markets. Just as the bear market of 2015 nurtured projects like Ethereum, Zcash, and NEO, which later shone brightly.

As time goes by, some once highly sought-after projects are facing new challenges. For example, Ethereum is struggling to address network congestion issues, Bitcoin's PoW consensus mechanism is being questioned due to decentralization and energy consumption concerns, and Zcash's zero-knowledge proof technology implementation still needs to be validated.

Fortunately, new innovations continue to emerge in the blockchain field. From the popularity of the Mimblewimble protocol, to the extensive exploration of cross-chain technology, to the emergence of the "anyone can mine" PoC consensus mechanism, we have witnessed the continuous evolution of blockchain technology. This indicates that, in addition to Bitcoin, many project teams are making significant contributions to the development of blockchain, driving this technology forward.