Trump strongly promotes pro-encryption Federal Reserve directors, is a rate cut in September a done deal?

Author: Hotcoin Research

Cryptocurrency market performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.86 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60%, which is $2.3 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $269.8 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 1.04%, among which USDT accounts for 61.21%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen while a small number have fallen. Specifically: MNT increased by 41.91% over the past 7 days, PENDLE increased by 31.81%, PUMP increased by 29.16%, MYX increased by 1420.3%, and TOSHI increased by 22.52%.

This week, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $253.6 million; the net inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. was $326.4 million.

Market Forecast (August 11 - August 15):

This week, stablecoins continued to be issued, with ongoing net inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in the United States. Ethereum broke through $4000 this week, showing impressive performance. The RSI index is at 62.75, indicating overbought conditions. The Fear and Greed Index stands at 68 (higher than last week).

BTC: It is highly probable that it will oscillate in the range of $114,500 - $118,500, with the breakout direction depending on the U.S. CPI data. If the data supports rate cut expectations, it may test $120,000; if the data is strong, it could fall back to the support at $112,500.

ETH: Performance may continue to be stronger than BTC, with a main fluctuation range of $3,750-4,200. Any positive signals from the SEC regarding spot ETFs could drive ETH to continue breaking through.

Short-term investors: A range trading strategy can be adopted, buying near support levels and taking some profits near resistance levels.

Long-term investors: Should take advantage of potential pullback opportunities to build positions in batches, focusing on the strong support areas around BTC 112,500 and ETH 3,300.

Understand now

Review of the week's major events

1. On August 6, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued a statement regarding liquidity staking activities, stating that liquidity staking activities are not considered securities;

On August 6, Base released a downtime incident report, stating that on August 5, there was a 33-minute interruption in block generation due to switching to a backup sorter that was not properly configured to handle transactions.

On August 5, JD Coin Chain, a subsidiary of JD.com, stated that it has noticed false reports and rumors in the market. JD Coin Chain hereby responds that it is preparing to apply for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong.

4. On August 7, according to Etherscan data, the number of daily transactions on the Ethereum network rose to 1.87 million yesterday, approaching the historical record of 1.96 million set on January 14, 2024.

On August 6, the Cboe BZX, a subsidiary of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), submitted a 19b-4 filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission requesting permission for the VanEck Ethereum ETF to stake ETH through a trusted staking provider in order to earn rewards as income;

6. On August 6, Cboe BZX, a subsidiary of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), submitted a 19b-4 filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), requesting permission for the VanEck Ethereum ETF to stake ETH through a trusted staking provider to earn rewards as income. The SEC officially ended its four-year legal battle with Ripple, upholding the first-instance ruling.

On August 8, Trump announced the nomination of pro-crypto official Stephen Miran to serve on the Federal Reserve Board.

Macroeconomics

1. On August 6, the White House stated that Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil. Following the new tariffs imposed by Trump on India, oil prices briefly rose, reaching a daily high;

On August 7, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark rate from 4.25% to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut in this round of easing, in line with market expectations.

3. For the week ending August 2nd, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States was 226,000, expected to be 221,000;

4. On August 8, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 92.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 7.3%.

ETF

According to statistics, from August 4 to August 8, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States was $253.6 million; as of August 8, a total of $23.662 billion flowed out of GBTC (Grayscale), currently holding $21.058 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $85.956 billion. The total market value of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States is $152.024 billion.

Net inflow of Ethereum spot ETF in the U.S.: $326.4 million.

Envision the future

Event Announcement

1. Coinfest Asia 2025 will be held in Bali, Indonesia from August 21 to 22;

2. WebX Asia 2025 will be held in Tokyo, Japan from August 25 to 26;

3. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held from August 28 to 29 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre.

Important Events

1. On August 12 at 12:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision.

2. On August 12 at 20:30, the United States will release the July unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate (;

3. On August 14th at 20:30, the United States will announce the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims for the previous week ) thousand () to 0809(.

Token Unlock

1. Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.3 million tokens on August 12, worth $53.04 million, accounting for 2.2% of the circulating supply;

2. Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock 1.67 million tokens on August 15, worth approximately $39.14 million, accounting for 0.33% of the circulating supply;

3. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 126 million tokens on August 15, worth $16.18 million, accounting for 5.98% of the circulating supply;

4. Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.56 million tokens on August 15, worth approximately $17.12 million, accounting for 1.21% of the circulating supply;

5. Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 9,263,000 tokens on August 16, worth approximately $39.11 million, accounting for 2.04% of the circulating supply.