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During the double festival period, the market is declining, institutional funds continue to enter, and the first quarter of 2025 may welcome a rise.
The market is weak during the double festival period, and Q1 next year may welcome a pump | Crypto market weekly report
Market Overview
This week, the crypto market showed a downward trend influenced by the Christmas holiday. Although the market sentiment index rose slightly from 7% to 10%, it remains in the extreme fear zone. It is worth noting that despite the overall market weakness, USDC, which is primarily based in the US market, still achieved a 1.91% rise, indicating that institutional funds continue to enter the market, injecting a certain level of confidence.
The DeFi sector's TVL saw a slight decrease of 0.37% this week to $52.7 billion, but projects like the gun pool that offer stablecoin yields performed impressively. The overall supply of stablecoins has been on the rise, indicating that despite the market correction, fundamental liquidity continues to flow in, with stable yield projects like the gun pool being in high demand.
The AI Agent track continues to attract significant market attention, with a total scale reaching $10.9 billion. In particular, the aipool model combined with TEE technology has become a new focal point in the market, expected to be a new type of asset issuance method following "minting inscriptions", demonstrating the deep integration trend of AI and blockchain technology.
Due to the impact of the holiday and the overall decline in the market, the Meme coin sector performed poorly this week, with a significant decrease in investor participation and capital inflow, while market enthusiasm has temporarily shifted to other sectors.
The public chain sector has shown strong resilience against downturns. Notably, Stacks has achieved an important milestone with sBTC, BOB is advancing the development of the BitVM Bridge, and Taiko has launched a new round of ecological plans. This indicates that major public chains continue to focus on technological innovation and ecological construction.
Looking ahead, the market is expected to continue its sluggish trend during the New Year's holiday, and investors are advised to maintain a defensive allocation, increasing the proportion of top assets, while moderately participating in high-yield machine gun pool projects. In the long term, the market generally anticipates a potential rise in the first quarter of 2025, with AI Agents and DeFi machine gun pool projects worthy of special attention.
Market Sentiment Index Analysis
The market sentiment index has risen from 7% last week to 10%, still within the extreme fear range. Altcoins have underperformed the benchmark index this week, showing a significant downtrend. Due to the Christmas holiday, liquidity has sharply decreased, leading to increased market price volatility, making sudden rises and falls more likely. Given the current market structure, it is expected that Altcoins will synchronize with the benchmark index in the short term, with a low probability of independent trends. When Altcoins are in the extreme fear range, the market is often at a stage bottom, and an upward reversal can happen at any time.
Overview of Overall Market Trends
The crypto market has been in a downtrend this week, with the sentiment index still in extreme fear.
DeFi-related encryption projects have performed outstandingly, indicating the market's ongoing focus on improving basic returns.
The AI Agent track project has generated high public sentiment this week, indicating that investors are beginning to actively search for the next market breakout point.
Hot Tracks
AI Agent
This week, the market is in a downtrend, with all sectors experiencing a decline. Although most tokens in the AI Agent sector are also in a downtrend this week, they have been the most discussed in the market. The main topic of discussion this week is the development of the aipool model, which combines AI Agent and TEE, and its impact on Defi in the future crypto market.
The booster for the periodic large rises in the crypto market is the emergence of new asset issuance methods. For example, past methods such as ICOs, IEOs, INOs, IDOs, and inscription have rapidly propelled market development and increased crypto market prices. With the rapid integration of AI and crypto, aipool has become a highly popular asset issuance method at this stage, and it is also a continuation of "money printing FI" at the beginning of 2024. If the aipool asset issuance method is widely accepted by the market, we will soon witness a small wave of asset issuance driven by the aipool model, so we should pay close attention to aipool-type projects.
DeFi track
TVL rise ranking
The top 5 projects by TVL rise in the market over the past week (excluding projects with a smaller TVL, with a standard of over 30 million USD):
In summary, we can see that the projects with rapid TVL growth this week are mainly concentrated in the stablecoin yield sector (gun pool).
Overall performance of the track
The market capitalization of stablecoins is steadily increasing: USDT decreased from $145.1 billion last week to $144.7 billion, a drop of 0.27%; USDC increased from $42.1 billion last week to $42.9 billion, a rise of 1.91%. It can be seen that although the market is in a downtrend this week, USDC, which is mainly based in the US market, still shows growth, indicating that the main purchasing force in the market is still maintaining a continuous inflow of funds.
Liquidity is gradually increasing: The risk-free arbitrage rates in traditional markets continue to decline with interest rate cuts, while the arbitrage rates of on-chain Defi projects are continuously increasing due to the rise in the value of encryption assets. Returning to Defi will be a very good choice.
Funding situation: The TVL of Defi projects dropped from 52.9 billion USD last week to 52.7 billion USD. Although there has been negative growth for two consecutive weeks, the extent is small, at 0.37%. The main reason is that this week, the Western market led by the US is in the Christmas holiday, resulting in a decline in both trading volume of various tokens and on-chain activities. Moreover, next week marks the New Year's holiday, and it is expected that there will not be much improvement. Therefore, attention should be focused on the overall TVL changes in January, monitoring whether the downward trend continues.
In-depth analysis
Pump driving force: The core driving factors of this round of pump can be summarized as follows: Due to the recent downtrend in the market, the APY of various Defi protocols has decreased, while stablecoin yield projects have increased their yields through token/points rewards, giving the machine gun pool projects a significant advantage in terms of APY from an overall market perspective. Specifically:
Market Environment: Although in a bull market cycle, the recent market has been in a downtrend, causing a significant decrease in the market's base interest rate.
Interest rate side: The base lending rate has been raised, reflecting the market's expectations for funding pricing.
Yield side: The yield of stablecoin yield projects is higher than that of other projects, attracting more users to participate.
This transmission mechanism strengthens the value support of stablecoin yield projects, creating positive growth momentum.
Potential risks: Due to the recent pump trend in the market, investors are focusing more on yield and borrowing leverage, neglecting the risk of decline. This week, due to the Christmas holiday, market liquidity has sharply decreased, leading to selling pressure without enough liquidity to support it, causing prices to continuously drop and triggering a massive liquidation of long positions in the market, resulting in losses for investors. This kind of liquidation greatly increases the risk of cascading liquidations, further lowering prices and liquidating more assets.
Performance of Other Tracks
public chain
The top 5 public chains by TVL rise in the past week (excluding public chains with smaller TVL):
rise leaderboard overview
The top 5 tokens with the highest rise in the market over the past week (excluding tokens with very low trading volume and meme coins):
Meme Token Rise Ranking
This week, Meme projects have been greatly affected by the overall decline in the market. Due to the Christmas holiday this week, there are fewer users participating in market trading, resulting in a withdrawal of market funds. The number of investors participating in Meme coin projects has significantly decreased, leading to the current stage where market attention and funds are not focused on the Meme coin track.
social media hotspot
According to the data from LunarCrush's daily top five growth and the top five AI scores in Scopechat, the most frequently mentioned theme this week (12.21-12.27) is L1s. The tokens on the list are as follows (excluding tokens with very low trading volume and meme coins):
According to data analysis, the most关注度 in social media this week is the L1s project. Due to the Christmas holiday this week, the market, mainly dominated by the U.S., has entered a holiday phase, and various market makers and institutions are on vacation, resulting in a significant decline in market liquidity. Most retail investors have reduced on-chain investment activities and engaged in selling behavior, causing a considerable drop in the market, with various public chains experiencing smaller declines. During an overall market downturn, public chains often perform better than other sectors. In addition to buying BTC and ETH for hedging, most investors have also invested in various public chains. When the decline ends and a rise occurs, public chains generally rise before other projects.
Overall Overview of Market Themes
According to weekly return rate statistics, the SocialFi sector performed the best, while the RWA sector performed the worst.
SocialFi Track: The absolute main player in the SocialFi track is still TON, accounting for 91.07% of the track's market value. This week, TON did not follow the overall market decline, rising against the trend by 6.3%, making the SocialFi track perform the best. This week, Toncoin collaborated with GMX to promote the development of high-frequency DeFi trading.
RWA track: In the RWA track, OM, ONDO, and MKR have a large share, accounting for 44.28%, 23