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Before the inflation data was released, there was some fluctuation in the market, but overall sentiment remained stable. Investors showed a reasonable cautious attitude towards the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Last month's broad CPI was 2.7%, with market expectations at 2.8%, while the Cleveland Fed's forecast was 2.72%. Unless unexpected circumstances arise, the data released this time is likely to fall between 2.7% and 2.8%. If it is below 2.7%, it will have a positive impact on the market.
The expected CPI monthly rate is projected to be lower than the previous value, which indicates that there is not much inflationary transmission pressure. However, if the core CPI is higher than or equal to last month's level, it suggests that inflation in the United States is still on the rise. It is worth noting that the current data has not fully reflected the impact of the official tariffs.
Currently, the market has gradually digested the impact of tariffs, and investors' attention has shifted to the game between policymakers. If the economic data is good, market sentiment will be positive; even if the data is not good, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, as the possibility of a rate cut in September is still quite high. The outcome of the current game between the market and the Federal Reserve is still unclear.
Regarding Bitcoin ( BTC ), since this Monday, its turnover rate has risen as expected, mainly driven by short-term investors. The price increase over the weekend attracted more trading activity. It is worth noting that early investors remain cautious, and even a return of the BTC price to $120,000 did not trigger a massive sell-off.
Currently, the chips at the two main support levels remain stable, and holders are gradually shifting towards a long-term holding strategy. The seventh support zone is forming, but its solidity needs further observation. Overall, although short-term funds are relatively active, the strength of long-term holding remains stable, providing strong support for Bitcoin prices. This balance between short-term activity and long-term stability lays a foundation for the healthy development of the cryptocurrency market.