Ethereum (ETH) approaches historical highs! Institutions are buying heavily with $946 million, but is there a short-term pullback risk due to high leverage? | ETH price prediction

Ethereum ( ETH ) has been continuously operating within a long-term rising channel since its low of $1,300 four months ago, with a weekly rise of 21% to $4,275, approaching the historical peak of $4,800 from four years ago. The strong upward momentum is driven by sustained institutional buying, with the Coinbase premium index showing a massive inflow of funds into the U.S., and a mysterious institution purchasing 220,000 ETH (worth $946 million) in just one week. However, concerns about high market leverage have emerged, with the estimated leverage ratio across all exchanges reaching 0.68, close to historical highs, warning that price fluctuations may intensify. Although buyers dominate, pushing ETH towards $4,501/$4,788, caution is needed as the critical support level at $3,980, if breached, could trigger a wave of long order liquidations.

[Technical pattern is strong, ETH approaches previous high] Ethereum ( ETH ) has maintained its price trend within an upward channel for over a month since it touched the bottom of around $1,300 four months ago. During this period, ETH has climbed all the way up to $4,300 high, and is currently gradually approaching the historical peak of $4,800 set four years ago ( ATH ). As of the time of writing, ETH is trading at $4,275, with a weekly increase of up to 21%, demonstrating strong upward momentum.

[Institutional whales continue to accumulate, becoming the core driving force] The continuous institutional demand remains the main driving force behind this round of Ethereum rise. The Coinbase premium index has been negative for only seven days in the past three months, maintaining a positive state for a long time, which strongly suggests that there is significant buying power in the US market. Such buying scale usually indicates deep participation from institutional investors.

The blockchain analysis platform Lookonchain further corroborated this: an unidentified institution spent a staggering $212 million within just one day to purchase 49,533 ETH. Even more astonishing, over the past week, the same buyer accumulated a total of 221,166 ETH, amounting to as much as $946 million. Historical experience shows that such large-scale institutional inflows often indicate that prices will further rise, as the buying pressure on the charts continues to accumulate.

[High leverage warning, short-term fluctuation risk intensifies] However, despite strong demand for Ethereum, the market has flashed short-term caution signals. According to CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain data, the estimated leverage ratio across all exchanges (ELR) currently stands at 0.68, nearing its historical high.

Interpretation of the indicator: When the ELR reaches 0.68, it means that the average value of open positions in perpetual contracts and futures contracts accounts for 68% of the spot reserves. Although the ELR of mainstream CEX is relatively low (0.52), this precisely indicates that other exchanges carry higher leverage risks. It should be particularly noted that 0.68 is not an extreme leverage level, but it is high enough to amplify the bidirectional fluctuations of the market, making it easy to trigger severe price shocks.

[The buyers temporarily dominate, key targets and support levels] AMBCrypto analysis points out that Ethereum is currently supported by strong buying demand from all market participants, including institutions. This is reflected in the data, as the Taker Buy Sell Ratio ( has surged to 1.005, strongly returning to positive territory from the previous negative zone. This ratio measures the comparison between proactive buy orders and sell orders, indicating that buyers (especially institutions) currently control the market direction.

If institutions continue to accumulate, the ETH price is expected to rise to $4,501, and further challenge the $4,788 target level. However, if high leverage triggers large-scale long order liquidations )Long Squeeze(, the price may fall below the $3,980 critical reversal area — this position is identified by AMBCrypto analysis as an important support level.

Conclusion: Ethereum, driven by the continuous influx of institutional capital, maintains a strong technical formation and is aiming for historical highs. However, the high leverage levels across the market are like the 'Sword of Damocles,' significantly increasing the risk of severe short-term price fluctuations. While investors focus on the upward targets of $4,501/$4,788, they must closely monitor the defense of the key support level at $3,980. Whether the market can digest the leverage pressure and sustain its upward trend will be a decisive factor, with the continuity of institutional buying playing a crucial role. It is recommended that investors manage their leverage and implement risk management strategies to cope with potential fluctuations.