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Behind the Fluctuation of the crypto market: The resilience of Bitcoin and the logic of a long-term bull run still exist.
Crypto Market Investment Fund March Market Observation and Analysis
This month, the crypto market has experienced fluctuations, leading to some opinions that the bull market has ended. However, based on an analysis of the relationship between Bitcoin and the risk asset trend against the US dollar, the reasons for the current adjustments in the dollar system, the renewed strengthening of long-term logic, and the gentle reaffirmation of the macro regulatory environment, we believe this actually confirms that the current market is still in the mid-stage of an upward trend.
The weak performance of Ethereum and most other cryptocurrencies is the main source of current market pessimism. We remain consistent with our view since April of last year that the price movements of Bitcoin will diverge from those of other crypto assets. The liquidity bull market truly driven by macro factors has not yet arrived, and it is also important to note that there is significant uncertainty regarding the direction of the next round of capital flows.
Looking to the future, we believe that the current high turnover range has been broken, marking the market's entry into a phase of re-adjustment and accumulation. However, referencing the historical trends of core dollar assets, we believe that the true key support level for Bitcoin is around $75,000, and there is no need for excessive concern before that.
Overall Market Trends and Analysis
We focus on the positioning of Bitcoin as a risk asset within the dollar system. The validity of this observation perspective stems from the fact that changes in the core assets of the dollar system are usually gradual, influenced by various factors such as macroeconomic conditions, regulation, and fundamentals. Currently, we observe that the following trend indicators remain strong:
Bitcoin still has a significant advantage in the Sharpe ratio relative to the Nasdaq index and other major tech stocks. Amid a series of negative news, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience.
On-chain data shows that the chip loosening situation is not serious. Especially when negative news is released, the market presents stronger support signals rather than large-scale selling, and supply has not increased uncontrollably.
From a regulatory perspective, a series of recent regulatory actions have actually laid a favorable foundation for long-term development. The market's misunderstanding of the American political and economic system is the main reason for irrational volatility, but this will not change the long-term positive trend.
Based on the recent analysis of the risk release rhythm of the US dollar, we believe that the medium-term adjustment cycle starting from February provides an excellent opportunity for position building in the next 15 months.
Finally, we observe that the industry is entering a rapid clearing phase. If this clearing process can resonate with market sentiment in a quick and intense manner, it may just catch the next bull market driven by macro liquidity. However, we need to remind ourselves that the funding flow path for the next bull market is likely to be very different from that of 2021, so a cautious approach is needed for the long-term holding strategy of existing crypto assets.