Bitcoin touches bottom at 114,700 USD? Four major data points suggest the bull run is not over.

On August 18, Bitcoin (BTC) fell to an 11-day low of $114,755, igniting intense discussions in the market about whether the bull run has come to an end. However, based on four core data points from the options market to ETF fund flows, top traders' holdings, and stablecoin demand, this pullback appears more like a brief consolidation rather than a trend reversal.

Options skew skyrockets to four-month high

The put-call delta skew index for 30-day Bitcoin options has risen to a four-month high, indicating a sharp increase in short-term panic sentiment in the market. Normally, this index remains in the range of -6% to +6%, while it rises above neutral levels when demand for protective puts surges.

Historical data shows that similar surges are often accompanied by strong pullbacks. For example, a similar situation on August 5 this year pushed BTC up by $9,657 within six days; the deviation on April 9 reached 13%, followed by a rebound to $11,474 within four days.

The impact of ETF fund outflows is limited

Although some investors are concerned that the spot Bitcoin ETF may experience capital outflows, data shows that the impact is quite limited. From the end of July to the beginning of August, the ETF recorded a net outflow of $1.45 billion, but BTC only slightly pulled back to $112,000.

Currently, the spot Bitcoin ETF market size has reached $152 billion, and a short-term 1% inflow or outflow of funds is considered normal volatility. Due to the recent decrease in volatility, market liquidity is sufficient to absorb large capital movements.

Top traders’ Holdings remain stable

Data from multiple CEX exchanges show that top traders did not significantly reduce their long positions during the recent pullback. Although there was a brief reduction around the $115,000 mark, the long-short ratio quickly returned to a stable range. This suggests that professional investors may be waiting to add to their positions after testing the $112,000 support.

Demand for stablecoins indicates that market sentiment has not deteriorated

Tether (USDT) is currently trading at a 0.8% discount compared to the official USD exchange rate in the Chinese market, indicating slight capital outflow pressure. However, this data has remained stable since last Friday and has not further deteriorated, suggesting limited market panic.

Conclusion

The four key indicators of comprehensive options skew, ETF capital flow, top traders' Holdings, and stablecoin demand suggest that the current $114,755 is likely the bottom of this pullback. If market sentiment improves, BTC is expected to return above $120,000. Investors should continue to monitor ETF capital flow and changes in the options market, as these data often serve as leading signals for price reversals. For more real-time market data and in-depth analysis, please follow the official Gate platform.