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As epoch-making as the iPhone? Apple Vision Pro can't do it for now
Source: Titanium Media App, author: Du Zhiqiang, editor: Zhong Yi
In the era of large-scale models for all, Apple once again proved its appeal to the outside world. Even if it does not talk about AI, it can still become the focus of attention of the global technology community.
In the early morning of June 6th, Beijing time, Apple released its first mixed reality (MR) head-mounted display device—Apple Vision Pro at WWDC 2023. This is the "One more thing" that Cook called the most exciting WWDC, and it is also the final chapter of Apple VR that has been breaking the news for eight years.
In 1968, Ivan Sutherland, the father of computer graphics and a famous computer scientist, designed the first head-mounted virtual reality device—Sutherland. Meaningful VR headsets. 55 years later, the release of Apple Vision Pro is both a tribute to the "Sword of Damocles" and the beginning of the next era of computing.
In Cook's eyes, "Just as the Mac brought us into the era of personal computing, the iPhone brought us into the era of mobile computing, Apple Vision Pro will bring us into the era of spatial computing". In the more than 2 hours of speech, the introduction of Apple Vision Pro in the last 40 minutes or so made us forget the boring time of more than an hour before.
However, there are still many voices of doubt in the market for the "PPT" product of Apple Vision Pro, especially the price of $3,499 (about 24,860 yuan), which makes many people think that this is a piece of cake drawn by Apple. .
"This in itself is not a product for mass consumers," Counterpoint senior analyst Ivan Lam told Titanium Media App, "The launch of Apple Vision Pro is to test the market, and to educate the market."
**How sincere is Vision Pro, which has no handle, 12 cameras, and 5,000 patents? **
Apple Vision Pro, called a revolutionary new product by Cook. The definition of the era of spatial computing also makes this product have more expectations in terms of hardware and experience.
There is not much difference from the content of the previous online revelations. The design language of Apple Vision Pro is similar to a pair of ski goggles. The aluminum alloy frame, 3D braided headwear, and modular eye masks reveal Apple's high standards for details in many places. It is worth noting that in order to have a better wearing experience, Apple Vision Pro also discarded some things, such as using an external power supply in the form of magnetic suction, with a battery life of up to 2 hours, and it can also be used with an external power supply, but the mobility is further enhanced. reduce.
A practitioner in the MR industry told Titanium Media App that if the immersive experience advertised by the brand is to be achieved, the resolution per eye must reach 8K. Although Apple Vision Pro is only 4K, it is already at the forefront of the industry.
To achieve a computing platform and a high-quality MR experience, stacking of various hardware is essential. Unlike most MR products on the market, Apple Vision Pro gives people the first impression that the cameras are all over the body.
According to reports, Apple Vision Pro** is equipped with 12 cameras, 5 sensors, and 6 microphones. **The number of camera modules increases, making spatial positioning more accurate, and more space-based perception applications can run, helping head-mounted display devices Application generation of entertainment content in China and Africa. The configuration of multiple cameras also makes Apple Vision Pro Apple's first 3D camera, capturing wonderful moments in the form of 3D images and spatial audio.
In terms of operation, Apple Vision Pro gets rid of the handle and operates through voice, eyes and gestures. Users browse application icons by gazing, tap to select, swipe to scroll, or issue voice commands. The simplification of this input method effectively lowers the threshold for users to use and improves the interaction efficiency.
Apple said that users will not be isolated from those around them by wearing the headset, but will display the user's eyes through EyeSight. Through the face-tracking camera and eye-tracking camera inside the device, Apple Vision Pro can capture changes in facial expressions and display them on the external screen. Friends will also judge your status based on the content displayed on the screen.
The hardware is full of materials, and the demonstration given by Apple at the press conference seems to be perfect, and behind all this is a pile of 5,000 patents. In terms of price, even though it was previously expected, the price of $3,499 still dissuades many Apple users, just like after a long VR experience, many Apple fans feel "dizzy".
A ten-year Apple fan told Titanium Media App, "I upgrade all Apple products every 2-3 years, but Apple Vision Pro should not. Apple should learn from Tesla and lower product prices."
In eight years, the VR/AR industry has waited for Apple's Dongfeng
If Apple fails to do so, there is really no need to die in this industry.
In the consumer electronics market, from mobile phones, PCs to tablets, Apple has never been the first to enter the market, but it often becomes a disruptor in the end. For the layout of a certain market and product development, Apple has its own set of mechanisms. Ivan Lam said, "Apple has never been an adventurous company. A new product form must be relatively mature in terms of software, hardware and ecology before it will be released."
In the past ten years, Google has released Google Glass, Sony has vigorously promoted VR gaming devices, and Zuckerberg All in Metaverse, while Apple's product line is still the same. Not being an opportunist is Apple's "bottom line", even in the first two years of the metaverse explosion, it was unmoved. This time, with the release of Apple Vision Pro, it can be said that Apple is ready, and the entire VR/AR industry has finally waited for the "Dongfeng".
An investor who has focused on the VR industry for many years told Titanium Media App that since the metaverse cooled down, everyone is looking forward to the release of Apple’s VR/AR products. The industry needs a leader to define and lead the improvement of the ecology, and also needs a Stronger endorsements and good stories.
If counting from the first revelation of Apple VR equipment, the research and development of Apple Vision Pro has reached 8 years. However, Apple should have taken relevant actions earlier. Since 2010, it has successively acquired facial recognition technology companies, 3D sensing technology companies, mixed reality head display companies, AR lens companies, and VR live broadcast service companies, covering technologies, software and other ecology.
As for why it took 8 years for Apple Vision Pro to be released, Cook did not play the emotional card like domestic brands, and talked about his difficulties at WWDC 2023. I learned from many supply chain and industry insiders that the low yield rate and the inconsistency of internal opinions are probably the reasons for the frequent "bounce" of Apple Vision Pro before.
Judging from the specifications of Apple Vision Pro, whether it is assembly or the design and production of components such as screens, it is very difficult. Previously, the cost map of Apple Vision Pro has been exposed on the Internet. The cost of each component plus assembly is as high as 1,300 US dollars, of which the highest cost is Micro OLED. The low yield rate also caused Apple's MR products to be delayed again and again. According to the Information report, until April this year, Apple MR products were still in the mass production verification stage until April this year, and the design of the headset was still being fine-tuned.
In addition to the difficulties in mass production, the disunity of Apple's internal opinions and insufficient inclination of resources may also be an important reason why Apple Vision Pro was not released as scheduled.
An industry analyst told Titanium Media App that, unlike the iPhone and other products, Apple's VR/AR line itself has been subject to internal controversy. One is the form of the product, whether it is lighter glasses or a head-mounted display. There has been no consensus internally for a period of time in the early stage. The other is whether it is necessary to establish a project for VR/AR products. Not everyone in the company is optimistic about this track, and some people think that this will make Apple less focused, which will instead affect the R&D investment of other products.
Last year, Cook said, "People will not be able to imagine life without AR in the future, and we have indeed made a lot of investment in this field." Although he is optimistic about the development of the AR industry, market news shows that Cook has not gone deep Participated in the research and development process of Apple's headset, and this also led to the slow progress of related projects.
According to reports, Apple invests more than 1 billion US dollars in MR projects every year. The release of the "PPT" of Apple Vision Pro this time is due to software development and mass production reasons, and Apple is unwilling to continue to wait. "The current product and content form is not perfect, but everyone has been looking forward to it for so long, so it has to be released, right?"
Create a new era, Cook's last "stubbornness" before retirement
As Cook said, entering the era of spatial computing, what Apple Vision Pro currently shows is not enough to convince consumers. Especially after the press conference, you can only feel the appearance, but not get hands-on experience, which adds a bit of uncertainty to this product. In the words of netizens, the Apple Vision Pro, which will be released early next year, is more like a "big pie".
Before the press conference, some organizations predicted that the shipment volume of Apple Vision Pro in the first year would be 500,000 or less, depending on Apple's yield rate and the perfection of the application ecosystem.
According to the shipment volume of 500,000, the sales of Apple Vision Pro in the first year will be about 1.7 billion US dollars. In contrast, in the previous quarter, iPhone revenue was $51.334 billion, Mac revenue was $7.168 billion, and iPad revenue was $6.67 billion.
Ivan Lam revealed that Apple Vision Pro is not facing the mass consumer market, but users who have been educated. They have experienced VR/AR products, and they will pursue higher-end products. The US market is also the first choice. considerations. As for the contribution of income and profit, it may have to wait until around 2025 for a more obvious change.
Regarding Apple Vision Pro, a senior entrepreneur in the technology industry told Titanium Media App, "This is a product that changes the way of life and work, opens up a new era, and allows human beings to enter the era of virtual reality symbiosis." As for Apple Vision Pro Some compromised designs, the entrepreneur also pointed out that many choices are to choose the best one among the current realistic alternatives, but it may not be the best solution in the future. This is also the regret and charm of technology—the best always in the future.
It is understood that after testing the market, Apple will launch a cheaper ordinary version of MR products in the future, which has a lower threshold and allows more consumers to experience it. But as to whether it can promote product sales, it depends on Apple's follow-up ecological construction.
At the press conference, Disney CEO Robert Iger said that once AppleVision Pro ships, Disney will provide streaming services for it. But this is not enough. Consumers spend $3,499 not just for entertainment functions, but for a reason for high-frequency use. Ivan Lam told Titanium Media App that MR products should not only look at the hardware, if they want to get out of the circle, they also need the promotion of a "killer" app, which requires the joint efforts of Apple and developers.
From the perspective of popularity alone, Apple Vision Pro makes WWDC 2023, which does not talk about AI, still very exciting. Since it has not yet been experienced, the current performance of Apple Vision Pro still needs to be questioned. But one thing is certain is that Apple will, on its own, drive the improvement of the entire VR/AR industry.
On the one hand, the popularity of the market has increased. Many analysts have said that after Apple launches its first headset, it is bound to bring attention to the MR headset market. The investor mentioned above told Titanium Media App that the entire track this year is too miserable. As popular as AI is, the metaverse is as miserable as it is. The release of the Apple headset can also give everyone an endorsement and reference.
IDC's "China AR/VR Headset Market Quarterly Tracking Report" shows that in the first quarter of 2023, China's AR/VR market shipped 173,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 37.6%. Compared with VR, the performance of AR this year is still in a rising period. Among them, the AR market shipped 22,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%. In comparison, the VR market shipped 150,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 42.2%. What is worth buying Zhang Zhiyuan, head of the digital industry, told Titanium Media App that from the perspective of platform data, AR products have attracted more attention, and there has been a certain increase this year.
Zhao Siquan, a senior analyst at IDC China, believes that the current global and Chinese market shipments are declining, manufacturers' new product launches, marketing actions, and the pace of new content online have slowed down, and the yield rate and mass production time of new display and interactive technology components Still not sure. This Apple Vision Pro has important guiding significance for the entire AR/VR industry in terms of product hardware features and content ecological upgrade direction.
On the other hand, Apple Vision Pro's requirements for product components and processes will further promote the improvement of the upstream industry chain capabilities. IDC predicts that after the release of Apple Vision Pro, it will drive the utilization rate of Micro OLED screens, optimize the structural layout of the AR/VR industry chain, and promote the development and upgrade of new displays, batteries, and interactive components. In the next 2-3 years, with the further reduction of product costs and the increase of module production scale, the average unit price of the whole industry will begin to decline.
CITIC Securities Research Report also pointed out that as Apple’s first head-mounted display product, although the mass production time is lower than the market’s early expectations, the product has outstanding performance in terms of interaction and device collaboration, and has exceeded expectations on the application side. We are optimistic about the iteration of Apple's MR headset and the opportunities for companies in the related industry chain.
Under Cook's leadership, Apple has lost its pursuit of the ultimate product, but it has allowed investors to get rich returns. It's just that, unlike Jobs, Cook has always lacked a masterpiece of his own.
Apple Vision Pro can be said to truly belong to Cook's "work", and it may be the only chance to prove himself before retirement. Judging from the definition of "spatial computing era", it is enough to see Cook's high expectations for Apple Vision Pro, and his desire to create a new era like the iPhone.
Again, for consumer-grade products, convenience always comes first. Talking less about productivity and making products with strong public perception is the basis for creating a new era.