On-chain data for the 25th week: the overall net position of the trading platform showed a large outflow state, and the market activity was average

Week in Review

From June 12th to June 19th this week, the highest price of rock sugar orange was around $26839, and the lowest price was close to $24800, with a volatility of around 8.14%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, a large number of chips are traded around 26,000, and there will be certain support or pressure.

analyze:

1. 24000 - 29000 about 3.23 million pieces;

2. 18500 - 23500 about 2.05 million pieces.

• The probability of not falling below 18000~22000 in the short term is 65%;

• There is a 70% probability that the price will not rise above 26,500-29,000 in the short term.

**Long-term insight: **Used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

**Mid-term exploration: **Used to analyze what stage we are in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face

**Short-term observation: **Used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of some directions and certain events under certain conditions

Long Term Insights

• Potential profit stamping percentage

• Long-term inflation rate

• Spot selling pressure

• High weight selling pressure

This week, I will mainly study and discuss the impact of the market on overall profits and the impact of spot profits.

(Percentage of potential profit stamping in the figure below)

In the mini-bull market in mid-2019, the underlying profit selling pressure is far greater than it is now, so let's ignore it for now.

Going deep into the important market moments in 2016; but the random performance is compared to the same period, when 2016 was in a volatile upward trend.

Now the situation is relatively sluggish.

According to most people's opinion, this time is similar to the small bull market in 2019, then from the perspective of profit stamping, it is only equivalent to about 40% of that at that time.

Compared with some previous cycles, the overall upward trend this year reveals a kind of fatigue.

For further verification, the concept of inflation rate (the selling of the market by long-term investors) is introduced.

(The long-term inflation rate in the figure below)

At that time, the selling situation of long-term investors was much higher than it is now. Today, the market and data correspond to indicate that the current strength is weak, whether compared to 2019 or 2016.

(Spot selling pressure in the figure below)

Compared with the situation in 2016, when the selling pressure was the highest, the selling pressure in the current stage has dropped by 30%.

Both the potential profit shock and the total selling pressure on the spot represent the current shock situation, much lower than in 2016 and 2019, but the market's performance is still worse than in 2016 and 2019.

(High weight selling pressure in the figure below)

Specifically, this year's high-weight selling pressure has dropped slightly.

With the current situation of high-weight selling pressure, it may be necessary to wait for a certain period of time in the future, and invest in the direction of the right side.

In terms of chain structure and selling pressure, it is much lower than the impact and pressure of the market in 2019 and 2016.

In terms of potential profit impact, it is only equivalent to 40% of the small bull market in 2019.

But the market feedback is much weaker.

In recent years, the pricing and market value of the market have shown a certain degree of weakness.

There may also be a certain discount for future long-term pricing.

Mid-term Probe

• Internet sentiment positivity

• Accumulate trend points

• Ratio of long-term to short-term held supply

-Long term supply net position

-Composite model of short-term profit percentage

• The main asset balance of the centralized trading platform

(The picture below shows the positiveness of network emotions)

The positivity on the chain is still in the recovery stage, and there may be no reversal signal on the right side for the time being, and the current trend is more towards slow recovery.

But the current information only reflects the current situation, and the question left for the market to think about is when the market will end.

Explore group dynamics in depth.

(Accumulated trend points in the figure below)

From the state of the accumulation trend, the accumulation state of addresses > 10k has slowed down, but the overall holding state in the market is in a stage of slight recovery. Compared with the previous poor accumulation state, it is currently showing a certain state of accumulation and accumulation .

If you observe the market from the perspective of the left side, you will find that the accumulation situation of the group has begun to recover during the price downward movement, and there may be a certain accumulation trend in the current market for the market outlook.

Of course, the factors that make up the medium and long-term fundamentals are relatively complicated. At present, we only observe the current state from a dynamic perspective.

It may be suitable for safe expectations on the market to regard medium and long-term expectations as left-hand operations.

(Short-term and long-term holding supply in the figure below)

Measuring the ratio of long-term and short-term supply is the main basis for judging the current state in the market, and it is also used to measure the ratio of basic liquidity in the market.

However, this model only reflects the ratio relationship and does not involve specific token transfers. It may be more suitable for observing the formation of a large cycle.

Judging from the current situation, the increase of medium and long-term groups in the market will reduce the supply of tokens available for sale in the market, which will make the sellers in the market less room to sell, but the supplementary model may be about the supply of purchasing power in the market measure.

(The main asset balance of the centralized trading platform in the figure below)

Both BTC and ETH showed a tendency to flow out of the centralized trading platform. USDT had a large increase. At the same time, USDC had a certain decrease. It may be that the recent USDC negative expectations led to the exchange of stablecoins in the market.

If enough time is given, the recent stablecoins have not yet shown a strong recovery status.

It may be that the mid-to-long-term group compression of the supply available for sale in the market is not a factor that can directly drive the market to improve in the mid-to-long term. A relatively objective understanding is that the difficulty of short-selling has increased, and more dynamic observations are still needed to make up for errors in the future.

(Long-term supply net position in the figure below)

The medium and long-term groups with more than one year have a certain increase in supply in the near future, and the groups with more willingness to hold coins may be increasing.

(Composite model of short-term profit percentage in the figure below)

This model is used to observe the staged top and bottom state of the market, and secondly, it can observe the movements of accumulation groups and short-term liquidity supply groups in the market.

The accumulative group is still increasing their holdings, and the short-term supply has not yet had many repair links. It may be that the market is still in a state of stock and low liquidity.

Short term observation

• Derivatives risk factor

• option intention turnover ratio

-Derivatives trading volume

• Option Implied Volatility

• profit loss transfer amount

• New addresses and active addresses

-Bingtang Orange trading platform net position

-Auntie trading platform net position

• High weight selling pressure

• Global Purchasing Power Status

• Net position of stablecoin trading platform

• Off-chain trading platform data

**Derivatives Rating: The risk coefficient is at the lower edge of the neutral area, and the risk has risen slightly. **

(Risk coefficient of derivatives in the figure below)

Since last week, the risk coefficient of derivatives has been hovering on the edge of the danger zone. The current risk coefficient is close to the edge of the danger zone, which means that the bulls are still under pressure.

(The option intention transaction ratio in the figure below)

Options trading volume has declined, and the current put protection ratio remains at a medium-to-high level.

(Trading volume of derivatives in the figure below)

The volume of derivatives transactions is at a low level, reflecting the current low enthusiasm of derivatives traders to participate.

(The implied volatility of options in the figure below)

Options implied volatility is weak, indicating that current options traders are less active and less willing to bet.

Emotional State Rating: Neutral to Cautious

(Profit and loss transfer volume in the figure below)

With the callback, the amount of loss transfers has currently reached a high level, and it will be a more positive signal if the amount of loss transfers maintains a downward trend.

At the same time, combined with the chip chart, the cumulative number of chips near the 26K price is relatively large, indicating that the game around this price is relatively sufficient.

(Add address and active address in the figure below)

Newly added and active addresses are at a moderate level. On the whole, the current market activity and investor participation are average.

Rating of spot and selling pressure structure: The overall situation shows a large amount of outflow, and the selling pressure has decreased.

(The net position of Bingtang Orange trading platform in the figure below)

The net position of the pie trading platform showed a large outflow. This indicates that the selling pressure in the current market has decreased.

(The net position of the E-Trading platform in the figure below)

The net position of the E-Trading platform is in a state of substantial outflow and accumulation.

(High weight selling pressure in the figure below)

Bingtang orange has a high weight selling pressure.

**Purchasing Power Rating: The global purchasing power has rebounded slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has rebounded slightly. **

(The status of global purchasing power in the figure below)

Purchasing power remains negative in Asia, has returned from negative to positive in Europe, and has declined slightly in the Americas.

(The net position of the USDC trading platform in the figure below)

The net position of the USDC trading platform shows a slight inflow.

(Net position of USDT trading platform in the figure below)

The net position of the USDT trading platform shows a medium inflow state.

** Off-chain transaction data rating: there is a willingness to buy at 24,500; there is a willingness to sell at 27,000. **

(Coinbase off-chain data in the figure below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 24000, 24500 and 25000;

(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 24000, 24500 and 25000;

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 27,000, 28,000, and 29,000.

(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)

There is a willingness to sell near the price of 27000.

Summary of the week

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. In the mini-bull market in mid-2019 and in 2016, the potential profit selling pressure far exceeded the current level;

2. Compared with some previous cycles, the overall upward movement of this year reveals a kind of weakness;

3. The total selling pressure of spot products, which represents market pressure, is much lower than that in 2016 and 2019, but the industry pricing and market value response are somewhat worse than before;

4. There may be a certain loss in future long-term pricing;

5. The high-weight selling pressure has a slight downward trend.

Market setting tone:

Compared with the previous cycle, this year's cycle has more fatigue.

may have some long-term impact.

On-chain mid-term detection:

1. The transaction status on the chain has entered the stage of light repair;

2. The accumulation state of the group is slowly recovering, and the accumulation of addresses > 10k slows down;

3. The medium and long-term groups are slowly reducing the supply available for sale in the market, but the short-term supply recovery is less;

4. The proportion of medium and long-term groups is increasing, and the current bias is towards the left side of the observation link.

Market setting tone:

Repair, accumulate

The supply that can be sold on the market is gradually compressed by the medium and long-term groups, but the short-term supply recovery is less, and there may still be insufficient liquidity in the medium term to cause disk shocks.

Short-term observation on the chain:

1. The risk coefficient is at the lower edge of the neutral area, and the risk has risen slightly.

2. The newly added active addresses are in the middle position, and the market activity is average.

3. Market sentiment rating: neutral to cautious.

4. The overall net position on the trading platform showed a large amount of outflow, and the selling pressure decreased.

5. The global purchasing power has rebounded slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has rebounded slightly.

6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 24500; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 27000.

7. The probability of not falling below 18000~22000 in the short term is 65%.

8. There is a 70% probability that the price will not rise above 26500-29000 in the short term.

Market setting tone:

The current market sentiment is neutral to cautious, and the level of activity is average, with a slight increase in positive signals, and the momentum of bulls is limited.

STRATEGY SUGGESTIONS:

Trade within a narrow range or choose an opportunity to hedge risks.

This article is from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.