Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: The market is looking for direction. Is the knockoff season coming?

A. Market View

1. Macro liquidity

Currency liquidity has tightened. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled in July. Although it did not indicate whether to raise interest rates in the future, it was generally dovish. This round of interest rate hikes has been raised 11 times, with a total increase of 525 basis points, and the interest rate has also risen from 0.25% to 5.5%, which has basically reached the highest interest rate level since this century. The US dollar index fell below 100 as the Fed neared the end of its rate hike cycle. BTC has underperformed relative to tech stocks in recent weeks.

Second, the whole market

The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:

Weak market adjustments this week. Altcoin dominance has returned. The market liquidity is insufficient, and opportunities are mostly in the small coins and new coins on the chain. At the end of the last round of bear market, the funds were speculated, and this round has been replaced by speculative local dogs. Most of the better gains in this round are projects that have real income and use the income for dividends and buybacks. The market hotspots are trading robots and RWA.

1. WLD: The goal is to issue coins to everyone in the world, to establish the first global-level real human identity narrative public chain, and to develop payment and financial scenarios. The risk is that biometric data for iris recognition requires cooperation with local officials. Token economics adopts the model of low circulation and high market value. The market value enters the top 10, and the subsequent upside is relatively limited.
2. MKR: The leader in chaining real assets, 70% of the income comes from the RWA track. The recent data on new business lending business also hit a record high. The holding reduction of major shareholder A 16 Z is coming to an end, and the factors that have suppressed the currency price for a long time have been eliminated.
3. UNIBOT: It is the leader in the trading robot track, benefiting from the high popularity of the local dog market on the chain. UNIBOT has certain innovations, allowing users to place orders directly on Telegram faster than Uniswap, with real income and dividends. However, the token model adopts a transaction tax model similar to meme currency, which has attracted criticism.

3. BTC market

1) Data on the chain

The number of BTC involved in transactions is decreasing. Investors who have held BTC for more than half a year and more than a year have successively reached new highs, among which 75% have not moved their positions for more than half a year, and 69% have held positions for more than a year.

The market value of stablecoins on the market has declined slightly. The market capitalization of the four major stablecoins decreased by about $400 million. BTC is still more likely to remain volatile until there is no new news from the spot ETF.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the index is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the index is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. MVRV fell below the key level 1, and holders are generally in the red. The current indicator is 0.69, entering the recovery phase.

2) Futures Quotes

Futures funding rate: The rate is neutral this week. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, and the long leverage is more, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate is -0.1-0%, and the short leverage is more, which is the short-term bottom of the market.

Futures open interest: This week's total open interest decreased slightly month-on-month, and the main force has withdrawn.

Futures long-short ratio: 1.3. Market sentiment is neutral. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator, below 0.7 is more panic, and above 2.0 is more greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.

3) Spot Market

The market is weak and volatile this week, but the Fed's interest rate hike boots are expected to be exhausted in the short term. BTC is still above the weekly line, relatively bullish, but the upside space is relatively limited. The altcoin index has rebounded more recently, and altcoins that have changed may have a chance to make up for it.

B. Market Data

1. The total lock-up amount of the public chain

2. TVL ratio of each public chain

This week, TVL decreased by 1.1 B, and the proportion of ETH chain decreased slightly by 0.4% this week. Optimism continued the good upward trend of last week, showing a growth of 4.29%, and this month even had a growth of 14.59%. But from the perspective of active users, although the number of users of the Op chain increased by 50% last week, it basically fell back to the previous level this week, with 108,011 active users. Avalanche fell significantly, with a 3.17% drop, and a 7.9% drop this month.

3. The lock-up amount of each chain agreement

1) ETH lock-up amount

2) BSC lock-up amount

3) Polygon lock-up amount

4) Arbitrum Lockup Amount

5) Optimism Lockup Amount

4. History of ETH Gas fee

Current on-chain transfer fees are about $0.79, Uniswap transaction fees are about $7.27, and Opensea transaction fees are about $2.82. Compared with last week's Gas situation, this week's Gas level is basically the same as last week, but the transaction fees of Uniswap and Opensea have dropped significantly, which may indicate a large drop in transaction activity.

Five, NFT market data changes

1) NFT-500 Index:

2) NFT market conditions:

3) NFT trading market share:

4) Analysis of NFT buyers:

5) Active projects:

This week, the total market value of the NFT market is still declining. From the perspective of transaction volume, compared with last week, the transaction volume of top blue-chip projects has dropped by about 10%. The lack of activity in the market can be seen from the volatility curve of Active Project. Judging from the active wallet addresses of new and old NFT buyers, the situation of old users paying for NFT continues to weaken, and the entry of new users also continues to decline.

Six, the latest financing situation of the project

About Foresight Ventures

Foresight Ventures bets on the innovation of cryptocurrency in the next few decades. It manages multiple funds: VC fund, secondary active management fund, multi-strategy FOF, special purpose S fund "Foresight Secondary Fund l", with a total asset management scale of more than 4 One hundred million U.S. dollars. Foresight Ventures adheres to the concept of "Unique, Independent, Aggressive, Long-term", and provides extensive support for projects through strong ecological forces. Its team comes from senior personnel from top financial and technology companies including Sequoia China, CICC, Google, Bitmain, etc.