The only chance: How to participate in the "room temperature superconducting" hype in the encryption market?

Author: 0x26

Is room temperature superconductivity real?

If you have a unique view on this matter, you can try the prediction market Polymarket. In this market, your pattern will be infinitely magnified. You can learn the latest knowledge and learn about the hottest events every day. And maybe you can make a small fortune by relying on your knowledge.

It's not just the topic of whether the founder of Curve will liquidate his position. Whether aliens exist, whether room-temperature superconductors are real, who will be elected as the next US president, Trump, Biden, etc., down to Bitcoin price predictions, Travis Scott's new album Utopia sales in the first week and Mbappe Where to transfer, and even whether Twitter (X) will go bankrupt in 2023, the black swan event Polymarket has involved.

Product Overview

If users want to participate in specific events and predict certain events, it is not difficult. If you are familiar with the Trump futures launched by FTX before, then the operating principle of Polymarket is easy to understand.

To put it simply, the sum of the positive and negative prices of each token in Polymarket's prediction market is 1. Taking the previous U.S. election as an example, for example, the price of the token that Trump won was 0.3, and the value of the token that Biden won was 0.7. On Polymarket, the value of both tokens is higher than 1, because each transaction requires a certain handling fee.

In the end, Biden won, the Biden coin was actually 1, and the Trump coin was 0.

actual use

Get account

Users can choose to register with an email address, or connect directly with a Web3 wallet. Recharge your proxy wallet in Polymarket by transferring USDC to the Polygon account on the platform. This proxy wallet holds all the funds of the user and is completely owned by the user himself, and can obtain the private key of his proxy wallet. Using a proxy wallet allows Polymarket to provide an improved user experience where multi-step transactions can be executed automatically.

Through the Polygon network, the author's USDC is basically transferred to the Polymarket account immediately

Pay for Faith

Polymarket first used AMM to provide liquidity, but this method will cause certain impermanent losses to liquidity providers. Now Polymarket adopts the "CLOB" (Central Limit Order Book) model, which is the form of a centralized order book. At present, Polymarket will hold some incentive activities similar to Blur, and strengthen the liquidity in the order book by encouraging users to place limit price orders to the middle value of Liquidity Mining (liquidity mining) rewards.

Take the topic of room temperature superconductivity as an example, users who believe that room temperature superconductivity is true can choose to buy on the Trade Yes page (blue in the above picture); users who don’t believe it can enter the Trade No page and choose to buy (the above picture red).

Combined with the price trend, briefly review this event.

On July 26, the South Korean research team published a paper claiming to have successfully discovered the world's first room temperature superconductor "LK-99", which can reach the superconducting critical point at 127 degrees Celsius under normal pressure.

On July 27, the Polymarket market opened the "prediction market whether room temperature superconductivity is true" with a ratio of 50:50, and then the number of parties who disagreed rapidly increased. At the peak, the market believed that there was an 85% probability that this room temperature superconductivity was fake.

Following a tweet from Twitter user Andrew Cote, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) submitted a paper on arXiv with results supporting news of LK-99 as a room temperature ambient pressure superconductor. It triggered strong optimism in the market about room-temperature superconductivity, causing a major reversal. At one point, the market had a 60% probability that room-temperature superconductivity was true. In other words, on Polymarket, which allows timely transactions, users who believe in room temperature can get more than 2 times the benefits at most.

With more research and discussion, it is now believed that the probability of success in room temperature superconductivity has decreased again.

The dust settles

Before opening the prediction market, Polymarket set specific criteria for each prediction. Each user needs to read the judgment criteria carefully before participating, so as not to cause disputes.

Take the recent fire of "whether the founder of Curve will be liquidated" as an example. The standard set by Polymarket is, "If any part of Curve founder Michael Egorov's multi-million dollar position on Aave or Fraxlend is forced to liquidate by 11:59 PM ET on August 15th, the market will decide YES .Otherwise, the market will make a NO decision.”

While the result has not yet been determined, users can also learn about the positions of both parties to the transaction through the official data.

Is Room Temperature Superconductivity True User Participation

Leaderboard in the Polymarket market, the number one user earns more than $900,000

Confucianism

** To some extent, Polymarket should be regarded as a product out of the circle. Because you can seriously "discuss" specific events with users from all over the world here, instead of delving into speculation. **

Some popular market segments are also connected to the Disqus function, which is like installing a Baidu Post Bar in these prediction markets. Users can speak freely here, not only sharing information on related issues, but also directly extolling fragrance.

Note: Due to the presence of a large number of bots, Polymarket has stopped the discussion forums of some markets.

Not only on the website, but also in Polymarket's official community, members are also "knowing astronomy at the top, geography at the bottom", and encryption is only one of its six discussion groups.

A Polymarket user said that the laboratory he worked in had completed room-temperature superconductivity experiments

However, Polymarket does not currently support self-built markets. If users want to build a market for a certain event, they still need to fill in a bunch of materials for review by the Polymarket team.

Even so, the team was fined $1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for non-compliance with market themes.

For the charm of this fair and open prediction market, Mike from 1confirmation summed it up appropriately,

"Polymarket's ability to quickly create markets for hot topics like culture, tech, and politics attracts a diverse community whose members not only have energy, but also a true emotional barometer through Polymarket.

Cryptocurrency-based prediction markets are a way to combat the spread of false or biased information in the media, providing economic incentives for people to seek truth.

The era of prediction market Mass Adoption is coming. As the world becomes more connected and information travels faster, the need for reliable, community-driven platforms continues to grow. "