Electric Capital Developer Data Report: Fewer New Developers in 2023

Original author: @eherrerosj

Luccy, BlockBeats

Electric Capital released an updated October developer data analysis on social media platforms on October 19, showing through data that the number of new developers exploring cryptocurrencies decreased in 2023. BlockBeats compiles the updates as follows:

We reviewed over 164 million crypto submissions and came to the following conclusions:

As of October 1, 2023, the number of monthly active open source developers was 19,300. The number of developers decreased by 27% compared to the same period last year.

Developers who have recently left the crypto space are mostly newbies, with less than 12 months of experience in crypto and submitting about 25% of all code. This finding is consistent with our findings in July 2023, a trend that continues.

Related: Electric Capital's Latest Report: Over 21,000 Monthly Active Developers, Mature Developers Still Contributing

The number of developers has increased by 66% since the bear market 3 years ago

Compared to the last bear market, the number of developers increased by 66%, but the number of developers decreased in 2023, a decrease of 27% compared to October 2022, and a decrease of 4% compared to October 2021.

! [Electric Capital Developer Data Report: Fewer New Developers in 2023] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-7f230462a9-cf5061d448-dd1a6f-69ad2a.webp)

Despite the long-term growth, what has happened since October 2022?

Developers who have been working in the crypto space for more than 1 year continue to contribute, while many newbies leave

We can categorize monthly active developers by how long they worked in the crypto space by comparing their first and last commits:

Newbie: Developers who have been working in the crypto space for less than 1 year

Emerging: Developers who have been working in the crypto space for 1 to 2 years

Mature: Developers who have worked in the crypto field for more than 2 years

Over the past year, the decline in monthly active developers has been largely due to the novice stage. This suggests that despite the long-term growth of the crypto space, since October 2022, many newcomers may choose to leave for various reasons, such as market volatility, fierce competition, etc. However, developers who have been in the crypto space for more than 1 year are still contributing, which may mean that they have a high level of confidence in the crypto space or have found a steady development opportunity in the industry.

! [Electric Capital Developer Data Report: Fewer New Developers in 2023] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-7f230462a9-218c1e7915-dd1a6f-69ad2a.webp)

We can see a 58% decrease in the number of novice developers, a modest 11% increase in the number of emerging developers, and a slight 5% increase in the number of mature developers.

! [Electric Capital Developer Data Report: Fewer New Developers in 2023] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-7f230462a9-471abd5bf9-dd1a6f-69ad2a.webp)

Why are there fewer new developers?

The number of new developers exploring cryptocurrencies decreased in 2023

First of all, the decrease in new developers is due to fewer and fewer new developers getting involved in the crypto space. As of October 2023, a total of 1, 721 new developers have joined the crypto space. In comparison, the number of new developers entering the crypto space has decreased by 40% since June 2023; 64% reduction since October 2022; Since the market peak in November 2021, it has decreased by 67%.

! [Electric Capital Developer Data Report: Fewer New Developers in 2023] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-7f230462a9-9425e9996e-dd1a6f-69ad2a.webp)

Newbies tend to dominate at the peak of the market

Second, during bull markets, newbies dominate, but during bear markets there is less. This phenomenon has also occurred in the past:

In the six months following the January 2018 peak, the percentage of newbies was as high as 70%;

In the seven months following the November 2021 peak, the percentage of newbies reached 60%.

However, in the 24 months following the January 2018 peak, the percentage of emerging and mature developers rose to 60%;

In the 23 months following the November 2021 peak, the percentage of emerging and established developers reached 70%.

! [Electric Capital Developer Data Report: Fewer New Developers in 2023] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-7f230462a9-f1b144b995-dd1a6f-69ad2a.webp)

While monthly active developers are down overall, how important are the developers who leave?

Developers who stayed in crypto submitted more code and were active and worked longer in crypto than those who left

In the crypto space, the vast majority of code commit contributions come from developers who remain in the space:

· About 25% of commits are contributed by developers who left after July 2023

· 75% of commits are contributed by developers who are still active in the space after July 2023

! [Electric Capital Developer Data Report: Fewer New Developers in 2023] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-7f230462a9-da73e2056e-dd1a6f-69ad2a.webp)

! [Electric Capital Developer Data Report: Fewer New Developers in 2023] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-7f230462a9-d9dcc891be-dd1a6f-69ad2a.webp)

In cryptography, developers who stay tend to have longer working hours and more code commit days:

For developers still working in the space, the median number of weeks of activity is 12 weeks, compared to 1 week of active weeks for developers who have left the space;

In crypto, the median experience of retained developers is 21 months, while the median experience of those who leave is only 5 months.

! [Electric Capital Developer Data Report: Fewer New Developers in 2023] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-7f230462a9-6f6692b0bf-dd1a6f-69ad2a.webp)

! [Electric Capital Developer Data Report: Fewer New Developers in 2023] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-7f230462a9-4ef8949b64-dd1a6f-69ad2a.webp)

! [Electric Capital Developer Data Report: Fewer New Developers in 2023] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-7f230462a9-0c63095f1a-dd1a6f-69ad2a.webp)

! [Electric Capital Developer Data Report: Fewer New Developers in 2023] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-7f230462a9-7f5c1510da-dd1a6f-69ad2a.webp)

Related: October 2023 Developer Update

Since October 2022, the number of active developers in some ecosystems has grown

Here are some of the fastest growing ecosystems with over 70 developers and positive year-over-year growth:

· Aztec Protocol: 168% year-over-year growth and 76 monthly active developers

· Celestia: 145% year-over-year growth with 81 monthly active developers

· Ripple: 18% year-over-year growth and 172 monthly active developers

· TON: 8% year-over-year growth and 126 monthly active developers

· ZKSync: 6% year-over-year growth and 229 monthly active developers

· Starknet: 4% year-over-year growth and 517 monthly active developers

Related: Explore Developer Data

We've updated the open source cryptographic taxonomy, and more communities than ever have contributed to the open-source cryptographic taxonomy.

! [Electric Capital Developer Data Report: Fewer New Developers in 2023] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-7f230462a9-0fa4e109d7-dd1a6f-69ad2a.webp)

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