2023 Q4 Popular Token Unlocking Inventory and Price Volatility Prediction

October Token Unlocked

In October, a number of well-known projects, including Aptos, ApeCoin, Axie Infinity, Optimism, and other well-known projects, will usher in a new round of token unlocking. We've compiled 12 upcoming token unlock events with an unlock amount over $1m. The content includes key data such as the number of unlocks, time, amount, circulation, etc.

Let's take a look at the specifics of these unlocks and analyze the impact they may have on token prices.

! [2023 Q4 Popular Token Unlocking Inventory and Price Volatility Prediction] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-69a80767fe-be621e6e1f-dd1a6f-69ad2a.webp)

Summary of $1M token unlock events in October

Large Unlock

In October, there were 4 projects with more than $10M in token unlocks, namely Apecoin, Aptos, Optimism, and Axie Infinity. Among them, Axie Infinity was the largest project unlocked of all tokens in October.

Axie Infinity (AXS)

Axie Infinity will unlock approximately 15.13M of AXS, worth $67.91M, on October 20 at 9:10 pm Beijing time. The number of tokens unlocked this time represents approximately 11.5% of AXS's current circulation. The specific distribution of unlocks is as follows:

• Team: 40.19%
• Staking Reward: 22.67%
• Play to Earn：22.34%
• Eco-fund: 11.17%
• Project consultants: 3.63%

It can be seen that AXS unlocked the largest proportion of this time is the team part. According to data disclosed by Axie Infinity, the allocation of the AXS team segment represents approximately 17.2% of the total supply of AXS. Since November 4, 2020 so far, this section has been unlocked by 59.52%, which is about 33.75M AXS. The unlock frequency is once every 6 months, with a single unlock of 10.12%.

We calculated the possible price change of AXS based on the proportion of circulation unlocked by AXS (assuming the market capitalization remains unchanged). The price of AXS may fluctuate downwards by 10.32% due to this unlock. But combined with the historical data of the last unlock and the sell-off, the actual volatility of the AXS price will not be so huge.

According to the price fluctuation data of the last unlock, the price fluctuation caused by the last unlock is not noticeable, around 1%. The number of tokens unlocked this time has not changed except for the team and ecological fund parts, and several other parts have decreased. The total number of tokens unlocked decreased by about 4.13M. Therefore, the impact of this unlock on the price of AXS will not be as great as calculated, and there is a high probability that it will be lower than the last time.

! [2023 Q4 Popular Token Unlocking Inventory and Price Volatility Prediction] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-69a80767fe-8728fa6074-dd1a6f-69ad2a.webp)

AXS Price Change (April 23~30, 2023)

Optimism (OP)

Optimism will unlock about 24.16M of OP, worth $30.92M, at 12pm Beijing time on October 30. The number of tokens unlocked this time represents approximately 2.74% of OP's current circulation. The specific distribution of unlocks is as follows:

• Core contributors: 52.77%
• Investors: 47.23%

According to the information disclosed by Optimism, this unlock is a fixed linear unlock (monthly) of the above two parts since Cliff unlocked on May 31, 2023, accounting for about 1.56% of these two parts. Currently, both the core contributors and investors sections have been unlocked by 34.1%.

Aptos (APT)

Aptos will unlock about 4.45M APTs worth $17.16M at 8am Beijing time on October 12. The number of tokens unlocked this time represents approximately 1.9% of APT's current circulation. The specific distribution of unlocks is as follows:

• Foundation: 29.3%
• Community: 70.7%

According to the information disclosed by Aptos, this unlock is a fixed linear unlock (once a month) for the above two parts since October 2022, accounting for 0.63% and 0.81% of these two parts, respectively.

But it's worth noting that APT will see the first unlock of the core contributor and investor sections in a month (Nov 12, 2023). The number of unlocks is 6.25% of these two parts, and the frequency is once a month. The total number of tokens unlocked is about 5 times that of October unlocked, 24.84M APT.

Apecoin (APE)

Apecoin will unlock about 15.6M APEs, worth $23.99M, at 8am Beijing time on October 17. The number of tokens unlocked this time accounts for about 4.23% of APE's current circulation. The specific distribution of unlocks is as follows:

• DAO:47.05% Yuga Labs & Founder: 40.96%
• Core contributors: 10.2%
• Charity: 1.79%

According to the information disclosed by Apecoin, the tokens unlocked this time are all fixed linear unlocks of the above parts (once a month).

Price Volatility Prediction

! [2023 Q4 Popular Token Unlocking Inventory and Price Volatility Prediction] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-69a80767fe-03fd50a764-dd1a6f-69ad2a.webp)

Price volatility prediction after the token is unlocked

We calculated the possible price changes of the token based on the proportion of unlocked circulation for each project (assuming the market capitalization remains unchanged). It is clear from the chart that Axie Infinity and CyberConnect were the two projects with the largest share of circulation in October token unlocks. If all the unlocked tokens are sold off, it will affect their token price by more than 10%. But will the real situation be exactly as calculated? The answer is clearly no.

According to statistics, these project tokens unlocked in October are basically fixed linear unlocks every month. Therefore, when calculating the price impact, we need to consider the fluctuation of historical prices and the token sell-off. At the same time, the volatility in the chart above is calculated assuming that the market capitalization remains unchanged. This is not in line with the actual market situation.

Therefore, all things considered, the actual price volatility of all project tokens unlocked this time will be significantly smaller than the data in the chart above. For example, as discussed in the Axie Infinity section above, the actual price volatility of AXS will not actually reach more than 10%, but there is a high probability that there is not even 1%.

Tokens unlocked in November and December

October unlock events are basically fixed, linear unlocks that are ongoing monthly. Although there are some items that deserve attention with a large number of unlocked and large amounts, there are no items that need to be paid attention to overall.

However, it is worth noting that among these projects, Aptos and dYdX will see "real" big unlocks in November and December. Let's take a look at the specific unlock information.

APT

Aptos will welcome the first unlock of the core contributor and investor sections on November 12, 2023, Beijing time. The amount unlocked is 6.25% of these two parts. The specific number of unlocks is as follows:

• Core contributor: 11.875M APT
• Investors: 8.425M APT

Together with the community and foundation sections that previously fixed monthly linear unlocks, Aptos will unlock a total of 24.84M APTs in November. The amount is about 5 times that unlocked in October and is worth about $121.5M, which represents 10.37% of APT's current market cap.

DYDX

dYdX will unlock the Investor, Employee/Advisor and Future Employee/Advisor sections for the first time on December 3, 2023, Beijing time. The amount of unlocks is 30% of these three parts. The specific number of unlocks is as follows:

• Investors: 83.1M DYDX
• Employee/Consultant: 45.9M DYDX
• Future Employees/Consultants: 21M DYDX

In December, dYdX will unlock 150M DYDX at once, worth approximately $285.69M, representing 84.6% of DYDX's current market cap.

Summary

After collating all the unlock information and analyzing it, we came to the following conclusion:

Most of the October unlocks come from the team/investor/advisor section, and are mostly monthly fixed linear unlocks in progress. Although the individual unlock amount is larger, there is no one-time large unlock after Cliff.

While individual projects (such as AXS) have higher price volatility calculated based on the percentage of tokens unlocked in circulation. However, combined with historical price fluctuations and sell-offs, the impact of this unlock on its token price will not be too great.

There are two unlocking events to focus on in November and December, namely the APT unlock of 24.84M on November 12, Beijing time and the DYDX unlock of 150M on December 3.