Do not trade the market that you don't understand. BTC short-term divergence, how will the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting affect the price?

In the financial trading market, if we cannot clearly judge the price action at a glance, it is advisable not to trade or follow such a market. Recently, BTC formed a bullish Candlestick pattern in the previous week, similar situations occurred in May and July 2024, and the price experienced an upward rally at that time.

However, overall, BTC is still in a downtrend. From a trend perspective, BTC is currently showing a downward trend, suitable for shorting at high levels.

From the weekly Candlestick chart, although there is a bullish Candlestick combination, BTC still has the potential for further pump, especially as the weekly MACD indicator shows a possible bullish crossover above the zero axis.

However, the word '可能' indicates the uncertainty of the market. In such a situation, it is possible to experience both a drop and a pump logic. If you did not acquire low-level chips at the 350-day moving average, Jiu Ge suggests waiting for the time being and avoiding hasty transactions.

So what are we watching? First, we need to follow whether MACD has formed a bullish signal above the 0 axis on the weekly level. Secondly, we need to observe whether the price will form a bearish Candlestick combination when it touches the descending trend line. As long as one of these two signals appears, it indicates that the market is about to turn, and the trading opportunity at this time will be more stable than the current one.

BTC is currently in a state of neither up nor down, half-suspended, which seems somewhat of a chicken rib for traders. At this stage, traders need to test their mentality and emotional management.

For a long time, we have emphasized that the meaning expressed by Candlestick may not be its true meaning. The same goes for moving averages and indicators. Only by keeping the mind calm and free from external interference can the wisdom of trading be generated and objective judgments be made.

The price of Bitcoin is currently in a position where there is a reason for a pump as well as the possibility of a downturn. On the daily candlestick chart, Bitcoin is testing the 30-day moving average ( $58,700 ). If it falls below the starting point of $57,600, the current pump trend may come to an end, and the market will be ready for the third low point test. This is the current trend of Bitcoin.

From the perspective of the 4-hour trend, BTC has evolved from a bearish divergence at the top on the 2-hour level to a bearish divergence at the top on the 4-hour level, and the corresponding energy bar has started to shrink, indicating that the bullish momentum is weakening.

During the process of price pump, BTC encountered resistance at the high level and top. Therefore, the price of BTC is likely to continue to fall, and it may be difficult to form effective support at $57,600. Looking down, $56,400 will be the next possible support level.

There are different opinions about the future trend of Bitcoin in the market. On September 19th, the latest interest rate meeting results will be announced by the Federal Reserve, and there will be a clear answer as to whether it will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, 50 basis points, or not.

Some predict a 50 basis point rate cut, while others believe it will be 25 basis points, and some think there will be no rate cut. If there is a rate cut, this could be long-term Favourable Information for the Crypto Assets market.

But the key is, what is the impact on the price after the news is made public? In fact, the impact of public news is often reflected in BTC's PA by the market in advance. Even if most people believe that interest rates will be cut, BTC prices are still hovering below $60,000, and the overall performance is not as strong as expected.

In this way, it seems that the heat of interest rate cuts may have been digested by the market in advance. Therefore, we should not expect interest rate cuts to bring about a huge Favourable Information or a reversal of the market.

Next, let's briefly analyze the PA of Ethereum. On the weekly chart, the price of Ethereum just touched the 5-week moving average and then pulled back. On the daily candlestick chart, the price encountered resistance near the upper channel and the 30-day moving average, starting a pullback.

Ethereum has shown relatively weak performance, and the Exchange Rate against the BTC trading pair has further declined, even falling below the important neckline. Therefore, Ethereum has indeed shown a weaker trend.

As a retail investor, survival is the top priority. Wait patiently for the market to reveal significant opportunities or swing trading opportunities before considering getting on board.

Today's sharing summary is as follows:

First, if you can't see the market trend or trend at a glance, it's better not to trade in such a market.

Second, the impact of the public information has already been reflected in the current Candlestick, so there is no need for excessive speculation or anticipation.