Forward #BTC# crypto world this round Bull Market potential black swan prediction #

The bull market is still ongoing in the later stage, with overall oscillation and upward trend. The rhythm of taking three steps forward and one step back is quite healthy, and the madness at the top has not yet appeared. Today, I symbolically sold a small amount of coins at 10.5W. It's not because I feel that the market has reached its peak, but I want to tell myself through action that the next step is to sell at the top and not buy (to break my own obsession with selling at a high price in the bull market), and at the same time, I shouldn't expect to hold everything and sell it at the highest point. Sell in batches and withdraw while trading.
There are still a lot of positive factors in the crypto world in the future, and the market will definitely continue for a while. However, the market often falls from a high altitude when all people are almost fully invested and increasing their investment while potential black swans strike. This is essentially because the bubble can no longer sustain itself in the later stage, and any negative news will trigger the panic selling of sensitive investors, leading to a stampede and a larger-scale exodus and stampede. Then comes the comprehensive exodus and stampede. This process is somewhat similar to nuclear fission, once the critical condition of fission is met and triggered, it is difficult for traders to escape unscathed from the shockwave. Therefore, they can only be a little foolish and sell in batches in advance, even if they sell a little earlier and watch from a distance, it is better than being forced to make a painful decision in the process of fission and stampede.
The current market situation is somewhat boring, and waiting is often the most patience-consuming. Instead of idling around, it's better to predict the potential black swan of the crypto world in this round of the Bull Market. Who will become the catalyst for the nuclear fission of this Bull Market? The following predictions are likely to be completely unrelated and off-topic. But what I want to convey is that when the Bull Market continues to the late stage and the bubble accumulates more and more, there will definitely be some unexpected events to burst the bubble, causing the market to suddenly reverse and enter a bear market (except for those with a probability exceeding 50%, the probability values for others are randomly written just to express their likelihood):
1. After the Fed cuts interest rates to a certain point, there is a probability of over 50% that interest rate cuts will be interrupted due to a resurgence of inflation or other reasons.
2. (Bitcoin prices are now highly correlated with the US stock market). The US stock market has seen a weekly and monthly level pullback, with a decline of more than 20% and lasting more than 3 months. Probability: over 50%.
3. A medium or larger financial crisis occurs in the United States and Europe, leading to tight liquidity and a sharp drop in the US market. Probability: over 30%
3. Trump's presidency may not go smoothly or he may encounter unforeseen events during his tenure. Probability: 20%
4. Musk encountered an accident when implementing radical new policies in the DOGE department (East Factory Efficiency Department). Probability: 15%
5. Geopolitical upheavals similar to the 🦢Ukraine war have once again impacted the global financial markets. Probability: 10%
No matter when the black swan will appear, and in what form it will eventually burst the Bull Market bubble, my advice for the 25-year crypto world market is as follows:
1. Actively observe the indicators and various signs of the market peak from now on.
2. From now until the end of 25, in principle, only sell and not buy.
3. Even if the portion that was sold was not sold at the highest point, please do not re-enter the market.
4. Reduce leverage as soon as possible (if any), and sell off the big coins before the altcoins in batches.
5. When the black swan clearly appears at the end of the bull market, the fission has already occurred. If there is no time or reluctance to liquidate, please be sure to convert all the altcoins into BTC at the first time to save yourself.