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The Federal Reserve, boldly leaking secrets to the world


Why choose yesterday? Suspected of leaking information.
Yesterday was a calm trading day for the financial markets as the US stock market was closed and global market volatility was limited. But for the Fed, it was an extraordinary day- a bold move to the world. Because the market volatility was not significant that day, this move could easily be underestimated by investors.
First, four Fed chairmen made speeches on the same day. This is the most officials speaking on the same day since the December meeting - the Fed chose a trading day when the US stock market was not open to express their "voice" and minimize the impact on the market.
2. From the content of the speech, it can be described as "taking the world by storm" and the "hawkishness" has reached an extreme.
Boston Fed President Collins said there are reasons to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts given the "considerable uncertainty" in the U.S. economic outlook.
· Philadelphia Fed President Harker said that the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates, but there is no need for any form of rate cut measures at present, given the significant uncertainty in the economic outlook.
Collins and Huck's speeches were okay, expressing the mainstream policy stance of the Federal Reserve - a slower pace of interest rate cuts. However, Kansas City Fed President Schmid and Fed Director Bowman changed the 'rules of the game', even suggesting that they are unwilling to cut interest rates again. Especially when Schmid said 'the policy rate level should be neutral', meaning 'no need to cut interest rates' because the purpose of cutting interest rates is to bring interest rates to a neutral level.
· Schmid said we are now very close to achieving the dual goals of stable prices and full employment. I believe we are close to the point where the economy does not need to be restricted or supported, and the policy interest rate level should be neutral.
· Bowman said that supporting last month's rate cut as the "final step" in recalibrating the Fed's monetary policy, rising inflation risks determined the need for caution in the future.
3. The Federal Reserve chose a showdown, why yesterday? In addition to the fact that the US stock market does not open, there is another important consideration - the eve of the non-farm payrolls data. The Fed usually speaks before major data releases, and the impact of its speech on the market is usually "consistent" with the impact of economic data on the market, in order to get the market to digest some of the bad news in advance (to avoid concentrating volatility at one point). From this point of view, the Fed is suspected of "leaking", that is, it believes that the non-farm payrolls data is better than expected - good news for the market is bad news.
Now the world's attention is focused on 21:30 tonight, and the global market is on the brink of action.
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